2014 2nd Congressional District Campaign

Raye boasts POS poll showing big lead

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kevin raye

Republican candidate for Congress Kevin Raye

Former Republican Senate President Kevin Raye released a poll Thursday night that shows the two-time contender for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District with a strong lead over his primary and would-be general election opponents.

According to Public Opinion Strategies’ survey of 310 likely Republican primary voters, Raye has a 26-point lead over former State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin.

Raye was the choice candidate of 45 percent of voters, while 19 percent would vote for Poliquin and 5 percent would vote for Blaine Richardson, who finished runner up in the GOP primary in 2012.

[RELATED: On the Record: Republican candidate for Congress Kevin Raye…]

Thirty-one percent of those polled said they are undecided.

The poll carries a margin of error of 5.6 percent.

In an additional POS poll of general election possibilities,  Raye leads both Sen. Emily Cain (D-Penobscot) and Senate Majority Leader Troy Jackson (D-Aroostook). According to the poll, Raye leads Cain 45 percent -31 percent and bests Jackson 45 percent – 30 percent.

The general election survey of 400 likely voters carries a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

According to Raye’s poll, Poliquin does not lead either of the Democratic nominees in a hypothetical match-up.

“Kevin Raye is clearly a strong candidate with the voters of the Second Congressional District of Maine,” said pollster Glen Bolger, of POS, according to a press release distributed by Raye’s campaign. “He has sizable leads in both the primary and the general election.”

In terms of name recognition, the poll found Raye has 79 percent name ID, with 45 percent favorable and only 2 percent unfavorable. Poliquin’s name ID measured at 68 percent, with 29 percent favorable and 9 percent unfavorable.

The general election survey found both Raye and Poliquin have higher name recognition and favorability ratings than either Cain or Jackson.

Cain’s name recognition came in at 42 percent, with 15 percent favorable and 10 percent unfavorable, while Jackson’s came in at 27 percent, with 11 percent favorable and 5 percent unfavorable.

The Raye campaign declined to provide The Maine Wire with the full poll results, questions and cross-tabulations. However, a spokeswoman for the campaign said in an email that the poll was weighted for an accurate measure in terms of demographics, including geography, gender, age and party ID. “This is the same polling firm that has been used by Governor LePage, Senator Snowe, Senator Rand Paul and others,” she said.

Here is the press release from the Raye campaign:

Here is a memo from POS pollster Bolger:


Steve Robinson
Maine Wire Reporter
SERobinson@themainewire.com

About Steve Robinson

Steve Robinson was the editor of The Maine Wire from 2013 through 2014. A native of Dexter, Maine, Robinson is a graduate of Bowdoin College, and is currently a Producer for The Howie Carr Show in Boston.

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