2014 2nd Congressional District Campaign

WaPo: 64% chance Poliquin wins Maine’s CD2

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The Washington Post’s Election Lab is predicting that Republicans will grow their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives by four seats, including Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

wapo

According to WaPo’s analysis, former State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin has a 64 percent chance of defeating Democratic state Sen. Emily Cain in the race to see who will replace Rep. Michael Michaud, who vacated the seat after 12 years to run for governor.

On the Senate side, WaPo is predicting Republicans will win seven seats and assume the majority.

Here’s what WaPo says about their Election Lab: “Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race.” (You can read more about their methodology here.)

According to the Election Lab analysis, the GOP has an 82 percent chance of taking control of the Senate and a 99 percent chance of retaining control of the House.

About Steve Robinson

Steve Robinson was the editor of The Maine Wire from 2013 through 2014. A native of Dexter, Maine, Robinson is a graduate of Bowdoin College, and is currently a Producer for The Howie Carr Show in Boston.

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