U.S. Sen. Susan Collins may face the toughest reelection fight of her career, and one of the most competitive in the country, next year — and political analysts say her path to victory could depend on whether she can rally support from Maine’s conservative base, including MAGA-aligned Republicans.
Collins, a moderate Republican who has held her seat since 1997, has weathered political storms before. But with Democrats eyeing the seat as a top pick-up opportunity, the state’s most prominent Republican may need to broaden her coalition to counter a potential challenge from either progressive activist Graham Platner or Democratic Gov. Janet Mills.
Maine has a history of splitting tickets, but Collins’ popularity has dipped among some conservative voters in recent years over issues like her votes on judicial nominations and federal spending bills. Political strategists say mobilizing grassroots Republican turnout — including pro-Trump voters who have at times been skeptical of her — could be decisive.
Mills, who has won statewide elections twice, remains a powerful figure in Maine Democratic politics and has announced her Senate bid. Platner has launched an aggressive campaign aimed at younger voters and progressives, making him a potential threat in a general election. Platner openly attacked Collins at his campaign event on Monday in Damariscotta.
Republicans are expected to make the race a top national priority as they look to defend or expand their Senate majority. With Maine’s independent streak, Collins’ campaign will likely need to balance appeals to moderates and independents while ensuring the conservative base turns out in force.
Collins told the Maine Morning Star in the spring that she intends to run for reelection in 2026. She has been fundraising for her campaign and raised $2.4 million in the first quarter, ending with over $5 million on hand. An official campaign launch has not yet occurred.
MAGA Republicans Weigh In
“I am a staunch MAGA Republican and there are times I vehemently disagree with Senator Collins’ votes in the Senate, as I’m sure many MAGA Republicans do,” Raelene Gardner said. “But Senator Collins does have the third most powerful position in Congress as head of the Appropriations Committee, and she does very well by and for the State of Maine. We can’t lose that.”
Gardner also added that Collins is the only Republican member of Congress from New England and credited her for taking decisive action on state issues, including requesting that the FBI investigate the Newburgh ballot issue and calling for Secretary of State Shenna Bellows to step aside.
“Anyone replacing Senator Collins as a freshman senator will never garner the support for Maine in Washington the way she can — and has,” Gardner said. “If she loses an election, we all lose. I don’t know how any Republican cannot vote for her.”
“Senator Collins remains in office because of the ‘moderate’ vote,” Gardner said. “A more right-leaning Republican would most likely lose that Senate seat because they would lose the moderate vote. Be careful what you wish for.”
“I know that a lot of people are dissatisfied with Senator Collins; however, she is going to need our full support come this election to ensure she wins because, let’s be honest, either Governor Mills or Graham Platner would be a disaster,” said Jeremy Nichols. “Instead of focusing on the negative regarding Collins, take a few minutes to see the actual good she has done and the overall benefits that Maine reaps from her committee assignments. As of right now, she is our only hope.”
“In thinking about support for Senator Collins coming from Trump supporters, I think it may be a hard sell,” said Chris Thacker. “Many folks running in conservative circles are not happy that it seems she’s the name mentioned when there’s a holdout for a nominee or legislation important for the President. If there was a primary, I am certain it would be an uphill battle for her. When it comes to maintaining control of the Senate, folks will likely have to hold their nose and vote for her.”
Former Governor Paul LePage and a current Republican candidate for Congress “has been in conversations across the state discussing how important Collins’ seat is on the Appropriations committee”, said LePage aide Brent Littlefield.
National Republican Support
“Senator Collins is one of the most effective legislators in the Senate, and she is a true, well-respected leader,” said Senate Republican Leader John Thune in a statement to The Maine Wire. “She’s a seasoned fighter, consistently delivering for Maine and is committed to a set of commonsense values that inspire voters to keep sending her back to Washington. Currently the only Republican to represent a New England state, I look forward to seeing her win reelection next November against whichever far-left radical Democrat rises to the top.”
Senator Thune is not alone. Last week, Utah conservative Republican Sen. Mike Lee called Collins “exponentially better than the Blue haired Communist They/Them that will replace her,” in a statement of support that perhaps confused the future with the conditional tense.
