Early polling indicates that Mainers are extremely closely divided over both of this November’s referendum questions, according to the latest Pine Tree State Poll, a State of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
While political partisanship was, unsurprisingly, shown to be the single strongest indicator of someone’s stance on these questions, moderate and Independent voters were split nearly down the middle on the two questions.
First on the ballot will be the citizens initiative advanced by Dinner Table Action Executive Director Alex Titcomb and Rep. Laurel Libby (R-Auburn) that aims to implement voter ID requirements and amend Maine’s absentee voting law.
The second of the two referendum questions on the ballot is a citizens initiative establishing a Red Flag Law brought forward by the Maine Gun Safety Coalition that would theoretically make it easier for authorities to confiscate firearms – but which Maine’s largest police union opposes.
[RELATED: Mainers Will Have Chance to Vote on Referendum Questions One and Two on the Ballot This November]
Overall, there does appear to be a knowledge gap for Mainers between Questions 1 and 2, with 90 percent having heard about Question 1 while the same could be said for just 59 percent of Mainers with respect to Question 2.
Following along with this, nearly all Mainers have made up their minds about Question 1, as 22 percent are still deciding whether or not to support Question 2.
As it currently, stands, however, just a couple of percentage points separate support from opposition on both questions, placing the difference well within the survey’s margin of error.
A look at the survey’s granular level data reveals more about which Mainers are most likely to throw their support behind each of these initiatives in November.
Mainers between the ages of 50 and 64 are shown to be the most willing to support Question 1 at 59 percent, while those 65 and older are the most likely age bracket to support Question 2, with 48 percent reporting plans to vote in favor of the measure.
Roughly 40 percent of Maine’s youngest voters are interested in supporting both Question 1 and Question 2, but other figures are indicative that these cohorts are probably comprised of very different individuals.
Opinions on both referendum questions appear to vary quite a bit depending upon household income, with Question 2 showing a much greater degree of variance than Question 1.
Generally speaking, support for Question 1 dwindles as household income increases, ranging from 50 percent favorability for those making less than $45,000 to 37 percent for those making more than $150,000.
With Question 2, however, the richest and poorest Mainers were united in their opinions with 54 percent and 50 percent supporting the measure respectively.
The income brackets that were least likely back Question 2 were $75,000 to $99,999 and $100,000 to $149,000, showing between 33 percent and 36 percent support.
Question 2 also revealed a greater degree of variability between men and women.
While roughly half of both men and women were interested in voting for Question 1, there’s a 15 percent difference when it comes to Question 2.
46 percent of women intend to vote to approve Question 2, the same can only be said 31 percent of men.
