A new poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center offers some early insight into the 2028 presidential primary field for both the Democratic and Republican tickets.
As the first state in the nation to conduct their presidential primary elections, how things turn out in New Hampshire can often set the tone going into the rest of the election cycle, indicating up front which candidates have a real chance of taking their party’s nomination.
Results from the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, revealed that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently at the top of the potential Democratic field in the state, while Vice President JD Vance currently enjoys a runaway lead among Republicans.
Other promising contenders on the Democratic side include California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris was favored by just 11 percent of left-leaning respondents.
Among likely Republican voters in the 2028 presidential primary, Vice President Vance is favored by a margin of 51 percent.
The next most popular prospective candidates right now are Nikki Haley at 9 percent and Tulsi Gabbard at 8 percent.
Vance’s dominate popularity among Republicans is further present even when likely voters were broken down by age, as he earns the single largest share of support for each age group.
While he enjoys the most sizable advantage among those 65 and older with 58 percent support, over half of those 18 to 34 and 50 to 64 also expressed interesting in backing him in a presidential run.
Vance still held a plurality of support among those age 35 to 49, but both Haley and Gabbard earned a substantial share of interest among those within this demographic.
The outlook for the Democratic presidential primary field was more heavily impacted by age demographics, with the leading candidate shifting noticeably between demographic groups.
The youngest Democrats who responded to the survey were by far the most supportive of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, coming in at 36 percent. Bernie Sanders also made a substantial showing among this group, earning support from 17 percent of respondents, alongside Gov. Newsom at 15 percent.
Overall front-runner Buttigieg was supported by just 1 percent of Democratic voters in this age group. Among the other three age categories, however, Buttigieg was found to be the clear leader with between 21 percent and 27 percent support.
Divisions based on income bracket also produced some interesting results across both parties, with certain candidates faring noticeably better among those drawing different annual salaries.
For example on the Republican side, Gabbard pulls 25 percent support from those making between $75,000 and $99,999 each year, while her numbers in the single digits for all other economic groups.
Haley also holds a more sizable measure of support among higher income brackets, jumping from just 1 percent and 3 percent in the lowest categories to 12 percent and 17 percent support in the highest.
Interestingly, Sarah Huckabee Sanders was found to have an outsized degree of support among those making less than $45,000, as well as between $100,000 and $149,999.
Across all income brackets, Vance holds a clear lead, securing the backing of between 42 percent and 62 percent of respondents. That said, his support was highest among those making less than $45,000 annually.
Differences based on annual income were also revealed on the Democratic side of the prospective 2028 ballot.
Former Vice President Harris, for example, was far more popular among the lowest income bracket, while Cortez took a commanding lead among those making between $75,000 and $99,999.
At the same time, apparent front runner Buttigieg saw a drop-off of support in this category, with the lower brackets reporting between 13 percent and 23 percent and the higher brackets coming in at about 30 percent.
Although 2028 is still quite a ways away, early polling can provide some insight into where voters are at based on the current political climate and give a sense of what Americans might be able to expect in the upcoming presidential election cycle.
