The Maine Statistical Analysis Center, part of the University of Southern Maine’s Catherine Cutler Institute, published a report in July entitled “Recidivism Among Sex Offenders in Massachusetts & Maine.”
The report was funded by a Bureau of Justice Statistics grant, in order to provide policy makers with empirical data on a critical issue of public safety — sex crimes committed by reoffenders.
In Maine, recidivism is defined as the presence of an arrest that results in a conviction within a five year period from release.
Types of recidivism categorized by the report include sex offenses, violent offenses, registry violations, and any other type of offense.
The data analyzed in the report spanned a range from 2005 to 2019, and in order to be included in the study, offenders had to be committed to prison for a sex offense and then released within that 14-year period — a total of 905 records in Maine.
The study population was predominantly male, with only 2.1 percent of offenders identified as female. Ninety percent of the offender population was white, and 10 percent were persons of color.
In order to control for certain attributes, the report classified offenders by type and age, the severity and number of the sex offenses, commitment length, release type (supervision or discharge), and the security level of the facility the offender was released from.
Maine’s five-year recidivism rate was 43 percent, much higher than Massachusetts’ rate of 25 percent.
The report explains that the gap could be due to the two states having different criminal laws and procedures, and that an offense that resulted in a commitment to a state prison in Maine could result in a county jail commitment in Massachusetts.
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Additionally, individuals whose most severe sex offense was a misdemeanor committed additional crimes at a rate 45 percent higher than those of a felony level offense, according to the report.
Offenders whose crimes fell short of rape and did not target children recidivate 45 percent more than offenders who committed crimes against children.
In Maine, the average age of a child predator at the time of their earliest sex offense was 35, compared to 30 years old for child rapists and 31.1 years old for rapists.
The study also found an association between age at release and recidivism rates, as well as with the release type.
For every 10-year increase in age at release, the recidivism rate decreased by 21 percent.
Furthermore, offenders who were released into supervision had a 38 percent decreased risk of recidivism for every 10-year increase of age at release.
Discharged offenders released without supervision are expected to recidivate at a rate 61 percent higher than offenders who were supervised following release, according to the report.
For the offenders released between 2005 and 2019 in Maine, the length of their prison sentence ranged from one to 22 years, for an average commitment length of 31 months — while 50 percent of offenders were committed for less than 20 months
The type of facility is also associated with recidivism rates, with offenders released from a maximum-security level facility recidivating at a rate 2.4 times higher than that of offenders released from a medium security level facility or lower.
Thank you, Edward Tomic, for sharing this report with us.
For our math-minded people, 5% of the released inmates committed a new sex offense out of the entire group of 43% in Maine who committed any type of offense. If you were to look at the entire group of people released in Maine (661) who had previously committed a sex offense (with some re-offending and some not), it would not be 5% of the entire 661 people used in the Maine study.
5% of 43% of 661 = 14 people leaving prison for a sex crime and committing a new sex crime.
What percent of the total people (661) in the study, with some committing an offense and some not, is 14 people? 2%
Yes, 2% of the 661 people released from prison for a prior sex offense in this Maine study committed a new sex offense.
This is what the public wants to know: How many of ALL released inmates actually commit a new sex offense? Unfortunately, this report fails to give us this important piece of information.
The problem with this report is its use of the word recidivism – a word that is not defined with uniformity throughout various studies. Even this report, “Recidivism Among Sex Offenders in Massachusetts & Maine,” acknowledges in the Executive Summary on page 1 that the “…recidivism definitions…can vary across local, state, and federal agencies.”
The raw data in this report is probably correct, but the conclusions being drawn are grossly misleading.
Complete and total fabrication of the facts. This is nothing more than grandstanding and fear-mongering, and this kid who wrote this should be fired and banned and placed on a registry of media writers who deliberately misconstrue the facts. Here are the REAL facts from this report:
“Buried down on page 34 of the report is the statement: “Overall, only 5% of recidivating offenses included a sex offense” for sex offenders in Maine who were released from 2005 to 2019. This is the same Maine study that showed a recidivism rate of 43% on page 2 of the report.”
And this:
“If you were to look at the entire group of people released in Maine (661) who had previously committed a sex offense (with some re-offending and some not), it would not be 5% of the entire 661 people used in the Maine study.
5% of 43% of 661 = 14 people leaving prison for a sex crime and committing a new sex offense.
What percent of the total people (661) in the study, with some committing an offense and some not, is 14 people? Answer: 2%”.
I borrowed every single word of what I have in quotes up there after I verified the math myself. I couldn’t have said it better.
2% people, 2%, which falls right in line with the US DOJ crime statistics analysis on rates of recidivism for people who have committed a sexual offense.
Sexual offenders are on the lowest branch of those offenders of ALL types of crimes committed, only second to the lowest rate of offenders, murderers, who have the lowest rates of recidivism of all offenders.
What’s the matter maine wire? Facts getting in your way of fear-mongering?
Complete and total fabrication of the facts. This is nothing more than grandstanding and fear-mongering, and this kid who wrote this should be fired and banned and placed on a registry of media writers who deliberately misconstrue the facts. Here are the REAL facts from this report:
“Buried down on page 34 of the report is the statement: “Overall, only 5% of recidivating offenses included a sex offense” for sex offenders in Maine who were released from 2005 to 2019. This is the same Maine study that showed a recidivism rate of 43% on page 2 of the report.”
And this:
“If you were to look at the entire group of people released in Maine (661) who had previously committed a sex offense (with some re-offending and some not), it would not be 5% of the entire 661 people used in the Maine study.
5% of 43% of 661 = 14 people leaving prison for a sex crime and committing a new sex offense.
What percent of the total people (661) in the study, with some committing an offense and some not, is 14 people? Answer: 2%”.
I borrowed every single word of what I have in quotes up there after I verified the math myself. I couldn’t have said it better.
2% people, 2%, which falls right in line with the US DOJ crime statistics analysis on rates of recidivism for people who have committed a sexual offense.
Sexual offenders are on the lowest branch of those offenders of ALL types of crimes committed, only second to the lowest rate of offenders, murderers, who have the lowest rates of recidivism of all offenders.
What a poorly written report! The use of derogatory and misleading terms already skews the results.
What they NEVER mention in this study is that s*xual recidivism is extremely low and you have to read the article to find a general percentage. They have a major problem giving specific numbers, maybe because actual numbers would prove that USM students suck at math.
MASSACHUSETTS – On Page 25 they state they looked at the records of 905 Maine Registrants. On page 17, they state there are 880 “eligible offenders” (they took out over 300 that weren’t tracked for five full years), only 21 of those were reconvicted of a s*xual offense in five years, so 2.38% of the total number committed a new s*exual offense over a five year period.
MAINE – On Page 25 they state they looked at the records of 905 Maine Registrants. On page 34, they state there are 661 “eligible offenders” (they took out over 200 that weren’t tracked for five full years), only 15 of those were reconvicted of a s*xual offense in five years, so 2.27% of the total number committed a new s*exual offense over a five year period.
This poorly devised “study” is just another of USM’s embarassments on this issue. in 2018, I conducted an art protest on their campus when they removed art from a display because the artist was a Person Forced to Register. USM owes us yet another apology for this low-quality, intentionally misleading drivel full of useless stats.