Most Mainers Say Bellows’ Blocked Trump for Partisan Reasons: UNH Poll

The majority of Mainers feel that “partisan politics” factored into Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ decision to disqualify former President Donald Trump from appearing on the state’s primary ballot, and half of the state has expressed opposition to her decision, according to a poll conducted recently by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center.

When taking a closer look at the data, Mainers appear largely divided along partisan lines in their responses, while Independents and self-described moderates are closely split.

On many of the key questions included in the survey, such as support for Bellows’ ruling and the perceived role of partisan politics in her decision making, these demographics were more evenly divided on their opinions.

Younger Mainers are among the most supportive of Bellows’ ruling and the least likely to believe that partisan politics factored into her ruling. Similarly, they are the most apt to say that the former president bears “a great deal” of responsibility for the events that transpired on January 6, 2021.

Geography also proved to be a key indicator among those who responded to the survey.

Those from Central and Northern Maine were the most likely to oppose the Secretary’s ruling and place the least amount of blame on the former president for January 6, 2021.

Roughly half of those in Central, Northern, and Downeast/Coastal Maine felt that Bellows’ decision was guided “a lot” by partisan politics, while just over a third of those in Southern Maine felt the same way.

Along these same lines, approval of President Biden differed dramatically among these regions. While more than half of those in Southern Maine approve of the president’s performance, the vast majority of those in Central, Northern, and Downeast/Coastal Maine disapprove.

Mainers Overall

According to the results of the UNH poll, 58 percent of Mainers believe that “partisan politics” factored into Bellows’ ruling.

More specifically, 45 percent of respondents to the survey perceived partisan politics as factoring “a lot” into the Secretary’s decision, while an additional 13 percent said they felt it factored in “some.”

In her multiple media appearances, Bellows has insisted that partisan politics played no role whatsoever in her decision.

The poll also revealed that an even 50 percent of Mainers either “somewhat” (4 percent) or “strongly” (46 percent) oppose Secretary Bellows’ ruling.

The UNH poll also asked Mainers how much responsibility they feel former President Trump “bears for what happened at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th.”

Fifty-seven percent of respondents said they believed the former president is either “a great deal” (49 percent) or “a good amount” (8 percent) responsible for the events that transpired that day, while 42 percent said that he bears “not very much” (21 percent) responsibility or “none at all” (21 percent).

It was also revealed by the UNH poll that 59 percent of Mainers disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance, while just 38 percent expressed approval.

Party Affiliation & Ideology

A closer examination of the results shows that Mainers are largely divided along partisan lines in their responses to these questions, but Independents and self-described moderates are generally split down the middle.

While 77 percent of Democrats said that they “strongly support” Bellows’ decision to remove Trump from Maine’s ballot and 94 percent of Republicans said they “strongly oppose” it, just 45 percent and 42 percent of Independents respectively said the same.

Similarly, 41 percent of self-described moderates “strongly support” the former president’s removal, while 43 percent “strongly oppose” it.

In terms of the perceived role of partisan politics in Bellows’ decision making, 88 percent of Republicans indicated they felt it factored “a lot” into her ruling compared to just 7 percent of Democrats.

On the other hand, 42 percent of Independents and 39 percent of self-described moderates said the same.

Again, the same pattern holds true for the perceived responsibility borne by Trump for January 6, 2021, with 47 percent of moderates and 45 percent of Independents saying that he is a “great deal” responsible, compared to 92 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of Republicans.

The only slight deviation from this trend comes with regard to approval of Biden’s job performance, where a hefty percentage of Independents and moderates were in agreement with each other compared to the other questions on the survey.

Eighteen-percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans expressed disapproval of Biden’s performance in office, alongside 75 percent of Independents and 56 percent of moderates.

Although Biden’s approval among voters appears to be flagging, his support among Maine’s Democratic officials appears unwavering.

Last year, when Biden visited Auburn to tout American manufacturing, he was flanked by dozens of Democratic politicians eager to have their pictures taken with the Commander-in-Chief.

In December, at a fundraiser in Portland, Democratic legislative leaders and Gov. Janet Mills unanimously toasted Biden’s first term in office and pledge support for his re-election bid.

Age-Based Divisions

Although age did not appear to be a perfect predictor of opinion throughout the survey, younger Mainers generally appeared to be one of the groups most supportive of Bellows and Biden, as well as oppositional toward Trump.

Nearly 7 in 10 of those ages 18 to 34 said that Trump bears “a great deal” of responsibility for January 6, 2021 compared to 59 percent of those 35 to 49, 36 percent of those 50 to 64, and 48 percent of those 65 and older.

Similarly 62 percent of the youngest age bracket supported Bellows’ decision to remove the former president from the ballot, a notably higher proportion than the 35 percent of 35 to 49 year olds, 32 percent of 50 to 64 year olds, and 44% of those 65 and older.

Young Mainers’ perception of the role that partisan politics played in the Secretary’s ruling is closely tied to that of 35 to 49 year olds, with 37 percent and 38 percent respectively reporting a belief that it factored into her decision “a lot.”

Fifty to 64 year olds were the most likely to hold that opinion, with 57 percent answering saying that it factored “a lot” into her decision, alongside 43 percent of those over the age of 65.

On the other hand, young Mainers’ support for Biden was most similar to that of the state’s oldest residents, coming in at 45 percent and 46 percent approval respectively.

Mainers age 35 to 49 had a 28 percent approval rating for the president, while 33 percent of those 50 to 64 expressed approval for his job performance.

Geographic Differences

Overall, Southern Maine was shown to have markedly different view than the other regions of the state.

While 53 percent of those in Southern Maine approve of Biden’s performance as president, the same can be said for just 21 percent of Central Maine, 33 percent of Northern Maine, and 36 percent of Downeast/Coastal Maine.

Similarly, only 33 percent of those in Southern Maine expressed a belief that partisan politics factored “a lot” into Bellows’ decision to disqualify Trump from the state’s primary ballot. This figure rises to 48 percent in Downeast/Coastal Maine, 51 percent in Northern Maine, and 55 percent in Central Maine.

When it comes to support for Bellows’ ruling, however, Downeast/Coastal Maine appears to enter into closer alignment with Southern Maine.

Fifty-six of Southern Mainers and 44 percent of Downeast/Coastal Mainers expressed strong support for her decision, compared to just 33 percent of Northern Mainers and 28 percent of Central Mainers.

Similarly, opinions regarding Trump’s responsibility for January 6, 2021 follow the same trend.

One-third of Southern Maine and half of Downeast/Coastal Maine believe that he was “a great deal” responsible for the events that took place that day, compared to just 38 percent of Northern Maine and 35 percent of Central Maine.

This poll was conducted by the UNH Survey Center between January 4, 2024 and January 8, 2024.

Click Here to Read the Full Results of the UNH Survey