The day before the crushing defeat of Question One on November 4th— which would have reformed absentee voting and mandated photo IDs for voters— conservative activists launched yet another petition drive to put yet another referendum question on the ballot.
When will they sober up?
Do they not understand that the lopsided 64 percent to 36 percent defeat of Question One means that voter ID legislation has little chance of passing the Legislature for at least a decade? Expecting Maine lawmakers to override the will of a supermajority of Maine voters is unrealistic, to say the least.
So, what makes the sponsors of the newly launched proposal – to ban boys from girls’ private spaces and athletic teams – think their initiative won’t meet the same inglorious fate as Question One?
Secretary of State Shenna Bellows will write the ballot question—and the courts will uphold it.
Strike one
The Maine People’s Alliance and the Maine Democrat Party will continue to lie and cheat, just as they always have. Emboldened by their demolition of Question One, their tactics will only grow more brazen.
Strike two
Expect a tidal wave of out-of-state campaign cash to pour into Maine from the LGBTQ+ nonprofit industrial complex. Compared to the gusher that’s coming, the No on One campaign will look like a gentle stream in the Maine woods.
Strike three
If the sponsors are serious about enacting the new initiative, they’d better be prepared to raise at least $5 million—the minimum needed to counter the millions their opponents will have. And for what? Even if the initiative passes, proponents will have spent up to $10 million to enact one new law.
If they can raise that kind of money, wouldn’t it make more sense to invest it in winning elections instead of waging referendum campaigns?
With $5 million in the bank, they could target five Senate seats with $500,000 in independent expenditures per district, and ten House seats at $250,000 apiece. Once we have conservative majorities in both chambers—and a conservative in the Blaine House—imagine what we could actually achieve: educational freedom (school choice), protection for girls’ sports, an end to sanctuary policies, cutting off welfare benefits to illegals, and yes, maybe even voter ID.
On the other hand, if proponents of the latest initiative persist in their folly, they are setting us up for 12 months of competition for donors’ dollars between the ballot question campaign and GOP legislative campaigns. Every dollar spent promoting the doomed-to-fail referendum initiative is one less dollar for conservative candidates challenging leftist Democrats in swing districts – not to mention the GOP candidate for Governor, whoever that turns out to be after the June primary.
Cutting to the chase:
There are no quick fixes. No magic bullets. No shortcuts.
Victory will only come as a reward for doing the grunt work—knocking on doors, making phone calls, building local organizations, and recruiting candidates who can win and govern.
Unless I’m mistaken, the last time a genuinely conservative ballot initiative succeeded was in 1977, when activist Mary Adams of Garland led her grassroots army of freedom fighters to repeal the statewide property tax. That was almost half a century ago.
Maine in 2025 is a very different place.
It’s time for conservatives to recognize that—and start playing the long game.
Lawrence Lockman of Bradley served four terms in the Maine House of Representatives, from 2012 to 2020. He is co-founder and president of the conservative nonprofit Maine First Project. He may be reached at larrylockman22@gmail.com.
