An independent poll?

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The Michaud for Governor campaign is touting the results of an Aug. 27 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C. On the campaign’s website, the headline reads: “New Independent Poll Shows Michaud as Frontrunner”. (Emphasis added)

inependent poll Q
The campaign is right on one account: the PPP poll does peg Democrat Mike Michaud’s support 4 points higher than that of Republican Gov. Paul LePage (just 0.8 percent outside the margin of error), making him something of a “frontrunner.”

However, PPP is anything but an “independent” pollster.

According to Federal Election Commission records, PPP staff, including PPP’s founder, president and CEO Dean Debnam, have donated exclusively to Democratic causes and candidates.

Even Nate Silver, poll wizard and former FiveThirtyEight blogger for the New York Times, has argued that PPP has a bias for Democrats. According to Silver, who is anything but a conservative Republican, PPP’s polls carry, on average, a 3.1 percent bias towards Democratic candidates and causes.

In this light, given both the margin of error for the poll, and the house effect of the pollster, LePage may actually be the frontrunner by more than 2 points.

5 COMMENTS

  1. The dishonest tactics of the left have already begun. And I wonder, who paid for this ‘ independent ‘ poll? Sussman? Soros? Bloomberg? And upon what was the poll based on? Do-Nothing Michaud has no record to run on.
    The real question is, how will the Maine GOP respond to this farce? Will they continue to play the go along to get along game? Or will they finally take the gloves off and start slamming the Democrats for their lies? Time will tell.

  2. I’m curious why you chose a Nate Silver post evaluating polls from so many months before the election, since he found after the election that PPP was quite accurate despite a slight Republican lean.

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