Presidential candidates typically enjoy a bounce in their polling numbers following a successful national convention, but the odds given to Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign on betting site Polymarket have taken a dive this week.
At the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Vice President Harris began the week a favorite among election gamblers, but she took the stage Thursday evening to give her first major speech as the Democratic presidential nominee with the odds market favoring former Republican President Donald Trump by five points.
Throughout the week, Trump’s odds of victory on the popular political betting site Polymarket increased, with many commentators suggesting the trend was a reaction to the show Democrats put on in Chicago.
The display has included a van delivering free abortions and vasectomies, mobs of angry anti-Israel protesters clashing with police in the streets, an angry and shouting farewell address from lame duck President Joe Biden, and wealthy Democrats like former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama bemoaning American inequality.
[RELATED: Free Abortions Offered at DNC Chicago as Democrats Crown Harris…]
“Trump’s lead in the odds just hit 7%,” said Polymarket on X.
Between May and July, President Trump was highly favored in the betting odds, maintaining a consistent lead over President Biden, with odds in his favor peaking at 72 percent.
After Biden announced via an X post that he would be dropping out of the presidential race amid pressure to step down from his own party and endorsed Vice President Harris, Trump’s lead shrank. Most political observers believe—and former Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has all but admitted—that Biden was pressured to drop out of the race because top Democrats stopped believing he could beat Trump.
With the left-wing print, television, and digital media celebrating Harris with naked favoritism, the Democrat enjoyed a steady surge in the polls despite never having received a single vote from Democratic primary voters.
Digital election prediction markets are a somewhat recent phenomenon. While various platforms now offer realtime betting on a host of political events, Polymarket has attracted the most interest from gamblers. As of Thursday evening, nearly $165 million had been staked on the election using the platform.
In addition to allowing election prognosticators to put their money where their mouths are, the betting markets also serve as a real-time public indication of who politics watchers believe has the best chances of winning the election.
Public opinion research has found that pollsters are more likely to get accurate predictive polling when they ask, “Who do you think is going to win the election?” rather than asking a sample population who they’re voting for and attempting to divine the implications.
Harris surpassed Trump on Aug. 9, before peaking with a 10-point lead over the former president a week later.
The colorful displays of progressivism at the convention may not be the only thing that has observers souring on Harris.
Last week, Harris buckled under pressure from political reporters and finally released a series of policy proposals that were widely panned by even liberal editorial boards and compared to communist economic schemes across social media.
Harris’ chances began to fall on the same day that she officially announced her support for Soviet-style price controls on food, taxes on unrealized capital gains, a $25,000 handouts to first-time homebuyers, and a massive hike in the corporate income tax.
[RELATED: Harris’ Housing Plan: Give New Buyers $25,000, Hope Prices Don’t Go Up…]
She maintained her lead until August 21, the third day of the DNC convention, which saw the party officially adopt a platform that includes broad amnesty for non-citizens who have illegally entered the U.S. as well as a path to voting rights for illegal aliens.
[RELATED: Democrats’ Platform Promises Mass Amnesty, Path to Voting for Illegal Immigrants…]
Currently, Trump holds a 6-point lead over Harris, with a 53 percent chance of victory compared with Harris’ 46 percent chance.
Trump’s regained lead suggests that the outlets claiming that Harris’ popularity in polls was simply a “sugar-high” which would shortly wear off when voters were forced to confront Harris’ policies and personality.
Despite Trump’s growing lead, Harris is still favored to win the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 while losing the election to Trump.
<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="30210 https://www.themainewire.com/?p=30210">2 Comments
Im sure the speech tonight will put her over the top. Yeah, right.. although the media will RAVE
Why waste time watching either of the shit show political conventions?