A new poll from the Congressional Leadership Fund, first released to Notus on Wednesday, gives former Maine Republican Gov. Paul LePage a notable lead over incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) in the race for Maine now highly contested Second Congressional District (CD2) House seat.
[RELATED: Rep. Golden Will Fight to Hold His 2nd District Seat Against Former Gov. LePage’s Challenge…]
The poll found that Gov. LePage is leading Rep. Golden by five points among likely voters. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would support the former governor, while just 43 percent said they would vote for the incumbent.
The Republican candidate’s lead did not appear to be the exclusive result of LePage’s significant name recognition as a two-term successful governor.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a political action committee dedicated to electing Republicans to Congress across the country, also conducted a generic ballot poll, asking voters which party they would support without mentioning specific House candidates.
The generic ballot gave the Republicans an even larger lead, with 47 percent saying they would vote for the Republican, and only 38 percent supporting the Democrat.
LePage announced his run for the CD2 U.S. House seat earlier this month and appears likely to earn the Republican nomination, particularly after last year’s nominee, former state Rep. Austin Theriault, ruled out another run and endorsed LePage on Monday.
Golden confirmed on Tuesday that he would be running for a fifth term in the House, dispelling speculation that he could be preparing for a gubernatorial run or an attempt at Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) Senate seat.
“While the election is still 18 months away and I remain focused on my responsibilities to my constituents and my family, I also know the path to the majority runs through Maine,” wrote Golden in a statement. “And I am going to do what it takes to make sure no one like Paul LePage blusters his way into Congress.”
Golden has worked to portray himself as a moderate Democrat and has broken with his party on some key issues while showing a willingness to work with the Trump Administration. That decision has likely contributed to his repeated success in the largely Republican-leaning CD2.
Golden has previously prevailed in extremely close elections thanks to Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, allowing a second count if neither candidate achieves 50 percent of the vote. The second count takes into consideration voters’ secondary preferences in candidates, and often alters the outcome of the race.
In 2018, incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) led Golden by 2,000 votes but failed to achieve 50 percent of the vote. Following a ranked-choice voting recount, however, Golden prevailed and unseated the Republican.
Conducted by Ragnar Research Partners, the Congressional Leadership Fund’s survey was fielded between April 13-15 among 400 respondents in the district, two weeks before LePage announced his candidacy and also before State Auditor Matt Dunlap said he is considering challenging Golden in the Democrat primary. It has a margin of error of 4.9%.
