AUGUSTA, Maine – Maine’s winter electricity pain isn’t a fluke, it’s a structural problem, according to a February 2026 Brattle Group report commissioned by the Maine Department of Energy Resources.
The report lands after a January 2026 deep freeze, described as part of one of the most demanding winter periods since 2017-2018, pushed New England’s power system into high-stress mode. As temperatures plunged, electricity demand surged, natural gas supplies tightened, and wholesale power prices spiked across the region. Maine ratepayers, already facing some of the highest retail electric prices in the nation, are now absorbing yet another round of increases.
At the center of the Brattle report’s warning is New England’s winter fuel reality: the region relies heavily on natural gas for electricity, but the gas pipeline network is capacity-constrained when cold weather hits. During deep freezes, gas is prioritized for home heating, leaving power plants competing for limited supply. The result is price volatility that can explode in a matter of hours, and ripple directly into Maine’s bills.
In January, extreme cold drove electricity demand sharply higher. Natural gas, which fuels about 55% of New England’s electricity generation, saw prices hit their highest level since 2003 because pipeline constraints left the region squeezed at the worst possible moment. Wholesale electricity prices in ISO-New England soared to $441.80 per megawatt-hour on peak days, compared with a January 2025 average of $135.08/MWh.
ISO-New England reported the system “performed really well” overall and avoided blackouts despite sustained high loads. But the region’s ability to keep the grid stable came with an important caveat: when gas supplies tightened, the system leaned hard on oil-fired power plants as backup, with oil reaching up to 30% of generation at times. Energy efficiency programs also helped reduce the strain, shaving roughly 10% off peak demand.
For Maine households, the impacts are showing up in cold, predictable ways: higher bills.
As of Jan. 1, 2026, standard offer supply rates increased, adding roughly $14 to $16 per month for typical Central Maine Power and Versant Power customers based on 550 kWh usage. Those increases are compounding broader cost pressures that have pushed Maine’s retail electricity prices among the highest in the country, including a 55% rise from 2014 to 2024, with additional upward pressure from supply costs, transmission upgrades, and storm repairs, including about $20 per month tied to recovery for winter 2024 damage.
The Brattle report attributes much of this vulnerability to the region’s winter dependence on constrained gas pipelines and its resulting exposure to premium-priced liquefied natural gas imports when demand peaks. When pipeline capacity can’t meet both heating demand and power generation needs, the region becomes more dependent on LNG imports purchased at higher prices, and that volatility filters into the wholesale market that ultimately drives what Maine customers pay.
Brattle and state leaders point to multiple overlapping drivers behind the affordability and reliability concerns. Natural gas sets wholesale prices about 81% of the time in New England, meaning gas volatility effectively becomes electric volatility. Supply costs tripled from 2021 to 2023, with spikes driven by weather and geopolitics, including the war in Ukraine, along with global LNG exports and projections that U.S. LNG capacity could double by 2031.
The report also flags the condition of the grid itself. Maine and the region rely on aging transmission and distribution infrastructure, with lines and poles often 50 to 70 years old, which is more vulnerable to storm damage and costly repairs. Inflation has also increased the cost of replacement equipment, including copper prices rising about 50% since 2016. Meanwhile, the increasing frequency and intensity of winter events continues to add repair costs and pressure to harden the system.
ISO-New England has warned that similar winter risks remain, even as it projects sufficient supply this season under most scenarios.
For Maine ratepayers, the bottom line in the Brattle report is straightforward: cold snaps don’t just bring uncomfortable temperatures, they expose the region’s fuel constraints, trigger wholesale price spikes, and drive the higher electric bills Mainers keep getting stuck with.
