New polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center offers some early insight into the 2028 presidential primary field for both the Democratic and Republican tickets.
As the first state in the nation to conduct presidential primary elections, how things turn out in New Hampshire can often set the tone going into the rest of the election cycle, indicating up front which candidates have a real chance of taking their party’s nomination.
Results from the Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, revealed that former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is currently at the top of the potential Democratic field in the state, while Vice President JD Vance currently enjoys a runaway lead among Republicans.
This closely echoes the results of a similar poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center this past fall, where both former Secretary Buttigieg and Vice President Vance were the frontrunners.
Also mimicking prior results, other promising contenders on the Democratic side include California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, both earning support from 15 percent of left-leaning respondents.
Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris was favored by just 10 percent.
Among likely Republican voters in the 2028 presidential primary, Vice President Vance is favored by a margin of 53 percent. This is up slightly from 51 percent in November, but the difference still falls within the survey’s margin of error for the population of Republican voters.
The next most popular prospective candidates continue to be Nikki Haley at 9 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 7 percent. Back in November, Tulsi Gabbard enjoyed 8 percent support among the Republicans surveyed, but this has since dropped to just 2 percent.
Vance’s dominant popularity among Republicans is further evident when likely voters were broken down by age, as he earns the single largest share of support in each age group.
Rand Paul saw a surge in popularity among the youngest Republicans surveyed, earning 17 percent of that age group, while all of Sen. Tim Scott’s support came from those ages 35-49.
It was among this age group that Nikki Haley also saw an outsized degree of support, coming in at 19 percent.
The outlook for the Democratic presidential primary field was more heavily impacted by age demographics, with the leading candidate shifting between demographic groups.
The youngest Democrats who responded to the survey were by far the most supportive of Rep. Ocasio-Cortez, coming in at 42 percent, up six points since November.
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez did not enjoy a similar degree of support among members of any other age demographic.
Gov. Gavin Newsom of California enjoyed roughly 20 percent support among all age groups except those ages 18-34, where it dropped to just 9 percent. This is a departure from last fall, when Gov. Newsom was supported by 15 percent of those in this demographic.nt of those in this demographic.
Although 2028 is still quite a ways away, early polling can provide some insight into where voters stand based on the current political climate and give a sense of what Americans might expect in the upcoming presidential election cycle.
