Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is advising political observers not to count out Sen. Susan Collins.
On ABC’s This Week, Christie called the five-term GOP senator from Maine “one of the most resilient politicians” he has ever met.
Christie, who has two failed presidential campaigns under his belt, predicted her challenger is in for a “rude awakening” when the campaign intensifies this fall.
“People who have bet a lot of money against Susan Collins have lost a lot of money over the years,” Christie said.
“Mr. Platner is going to be in for quite a rude awakening when he gets toe-to-toe with Susan Collins come this fall,” he added.
Christie’s political ear may be sensing something the betting markets aren’t seeing in Collins’ strength against Graham Platner.
Sure, the tough-talking former U.S. attorney beat an incumbent Democrat in New Jersey in 2009 to win his first of two terms as governor.
But since then his own political antennae have served him poorly.
He not just once but twice misjudged New Hampshire, which has the nation’s first Republican presidential primaries, by putting all his bets on small-town campaign coffees.
During his own 2024 presidential run, Christie confidently predicted that Trump’s path to the nomination could be blocked if opponents directly challenged him on the debate stage.
The forecast ultimately failed; he polled in the low single digits, suspended his campaign in January 2024, and Trump went on to secure the nomination.
So the accuracy of his bullish analysis on Collins v. Platner shouldn’t be overestimated. Nor can the fact he wasn’t confident enough to actually predict an outright Republican win be ignored.
If Christie is right on his read of Collins, he gets to settle a bet with Polymarket, which over the weekend was giving Platner a 25-point lead over her, 63-38.
Kalshi was also giving the likely victory to Platner albeit with a smaller, 12-point winning margin – 56-44.
The betting point spreads represent the odds of victory, not the margin of the eventual outcome.
Christie ironically has been a strong opponent of the political betting markets.
He currently serves as a strategic advisor to the American Gaming Association, claiming that platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are unregulated sports-betting operations that flout state and federal gambling laws. He has strongly pushed for their operations to be shut down.
Polymarket and Kalshi notwithstanding, Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to win a majority in the upper chamber.
Republicans can lose two seats and still retain their majority.
Four Democrats and six Republicans are not running for re-election.
Democrats are defending two seats in states that Republican Donald Trump won two years ago – Georgia and Michigan.
Republicans are protecting one seat in a state that Democrat Kamala Harris won against Trump – Maine.
