Early frontrunners in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial race suggest the field is still just beginning to develop on both the Republican and Democrat sides as a recent poll showed the two leading candidates for the GOP nomination haven’t even declared their candidacy while the one pegged at the lead of the Democrat pack may have been helped by the headwinds of a famous name.
Nearly a thousand Mainers — of whom 840 were likely voters — were asked who they would like to see as their party’s gubernatorial candidate in 2026 by pollsters at Pan Atlantic Research last month.
Republicans appeared most likely to support State Representative Laurel Libby (R-Auburn) when counting intensity of support as a factor (27 percent likely and 55 percent including possible), although when adding in those who would consider giving their support, former U.S. Representative Bruce Poliquin (R) gains a slight advantage with 23 percent likely but 59 percent when considering possible.
Former Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Bobby Charles, the only declared candidate included in the poll, received support from 14 percent of respondents, and an additional 26 percent said that they would consider supporting him.
Other declared or likely candidates on the Republican side include former Paris selectman Robert Wessels, Sen. Jim Libby (R-Cumberland), Patten native and MedRhythms co-founder Owen McCarthy, Bangor resident Stephen Sheppard, and retired CPA, systems engineer, and financial fraud investigator Ken Capron.
A third of Democrats (33 percent) appear ready to back businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I), with Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows trailing nine points behind at just under a quarter of likely voters. Another declared candidate, former Senate president Troy Jackson, enjoys only 13 percent support.
On the Democratic side, declared candidate and South Portland resident Kenneth Pinet was not included in this survey.
This poll was conducted between May 12 and May 26. Given the refined sample of 840, there is a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.
With respect to those who are currently representing the State of Maine, Sen. King was found to be the most well-liked politician with a 65 percent approval rating and a net favorability of 38 points.
Sen. Susan Collins (R), on the other hand, had a 49 percent approval rating with a net favorability of just 4 points. Newsweek cited this result on Tuesday as indicating Sen. Collins is less vulnerable to a challenger than national media had earlier reported.
Only a slight majority of Mainers were shown to approve of Gov. Janet Mills (D), with support from 52 percent of those surveyed. Her net favorability has dropped by 14 percentage points since October 2022, decreasing from 22 to 8.
Roughly the same share of Mainers currently disapprove of President Donald Trump (R), who has a net favorability of -9 percentage points, and Elon Musk was found to be the least liked politician by Mainers, enjoying just a 39 percent approval rating and showing 19 point favorability deficit.
Although Mainers appear to be largely split over whether the state is headed in the right or wrong direction, Democrats are significantly more likely to have a positive outlook.
Two-thirds of Democrats (66 percent) say they believe that the state is headed in the right direction, compared to just 25 percent of Independents and 20 percent of Republicans.
Mainers opinion on the state’s direction has been trending downward since May of 2022, decreasing from 47 percent to 39 percent overall.
20 percent of Mainers are unsure on how they feel about where the state is currently headed.
Representing the vast majority of Mainers, 65 percent of respondents cited inflation and the cost of living as one of the most important problems facing the state today. This was followed by immigration at 39 percent, housing and homelessness at 33 percent, and high taxes at 31 percent.
The Pan Atlantic Research Poll also asked respondents about two hot button issues in the state right now — the potential People’s Veto of the partisan $11.3 billion budget and Gov. Mills’ faceoff against President Trump over girls’ sports.
While the plurality of Mainers, 42 percent, have no opinion on the effort to put forward a People’s Veto of the party-line budget approved earlier this year, 37 percent either strongly or somewhat support the move, including 52 percent of Republicans, 37 percent of independents, and 29 percent of Democrats.
With respect to the participation of biological males in female athletics, a slight majority (53 percent) believe that Maine should comply with Trump’s executive order, including 82 percent of Republicans, 52 percent of independents, and 32 percent of Democrats.
Mainers were also asked about their opinions on, and relationship to, artificial intelligence (AI).
53 percent of respondents said they follow the discussions surrounding AI to some extent. 63 percent, however, are concerned about the potential problems that AI may cause in society, while just 26 percent are optimistic about the impact that it may have.
While about three out of ten Mainers reported using AI tools on a regular basis, 47 percent said that they never use AI.
Included among those who use AI regularly were 22 percent of those 18-34, 17 percent of those 35-54, and 7 percent of those 55 and older.
