Four-term congressman Jared Golden’s (D-Maine) surprise announcement on Wednesday that he would not be seeking re-election drastically altered the high-stakes race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District seat.
[RELATED: Golden Announces He Won’t Seek Re-Election in 2026, Drops Out of Re-Election Bid…]
Rep. Golden attributed his decision to growing political polarization on both sides. He ended his announcement without endorsing a successor but appeared to take shots at both Republican frontrunner former Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic challenger Matt Dunlap, Maine’s state auditor.
Prior to Golden’s announcement, he was polling below former Gov. LePage in multiple polls, with a May poll from Notus placing LePage at 48 percent compared with Golden’s 43 percent.
The more recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) Pine Tree State poll from October gave LePage a five-point lead over the incumbent, with a 49-44 percent margin.
Golden has historically won the CD2 House Seat in a district that voted for President Donald Trump three times while portraying himself as a moderate, willing to break with his party and work across the aisle on certain issues.
With the incumbent Golden out of the race, LePage appears to be the clear frontrunner in the conservative-leaning district.
Before Golden’s announcement, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, a non-partisan election analysis outlet, ranked Maine’s CD2 seat as “tilt Democrat.” Golden’s decision led to a significant revision, with Inside Elections now rating the district as “likely Republican.”
“We’ll have more analysis to come on the district, but for now, we’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to Likely Republican, in a positive development for the GOP and making it more challenging for Democrats to gain the three seats they need for a majority,” they said.
Currently, LePage is the only major Republican candidate running, though two smaller candidates have filed with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to run as Republicans: Gavin Solomon, who does not appear to have any campaign materials, and James L. Clark, a self-styled humanitarian and self-help guru who is campaigning as a political outsider and who filed to run on the day Golden dropped out of the race.
Dunlap appears to be the current Democratic frontrunner, after a polling memo obtained by Breitbart in August showed that 37 percent of voters supported Dunlap compared to just 39 percent who supported Golden. That poll came before Dunlap officially announced his candidacy.
“Voters deserve a candidate who will show up. Someone who will be available. Someone who will listen,” said Dunlap after Golden’s announcement. “And they definitely deserve better than Paul LePage.”
The only other Democrat in the field is Louis Sigel, a former Kennebec County Democratic Committee secretary who lost a 2014 state Senate election.
[RELATED: Louis Sigel Registers As Democratic Primary Opponent to Jared Golden for Maine’s 2nd CD…]
Dunlap may not remain the top Democrat in the race for long, however, with national Democrats reportedly looking to recruit a new candidate to run against LePage for Golden’s seat.
Fox News cited unnamed sources who claimed that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is looking for a new candidate to run.
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, who is currently running a Democratic gubernatorial campaign, is reportedly considering switching races to run for Golden’s seat. Conventional wisdom does not put Jackson’s gubernatorial campaign in the first tier of the five currently seeking his party’s nod, suggesting a switch to CD2 could provide him more room to run.
Jackson issued a statement expressing gratitude to the people who suggested that he should run, but did not provide a direct answer when asked by the Bangor Daily News whether he would run.
Inside Elections also suggested that Jackson could switch races and pointed out that he previously ran for the CD2 seat in 2014 but lost the Democratic primary.
Jackson has faced controversies in the past, including allegations of fraud and accusations that he did not actually live in the district he represented while serving as a state senator from Aroostook.
The Bangor newspaper also suggested that Chief Kirk Francis of the Penobscot Nation might run.
“In the short time since Congressman Golden announced he is not running for re-election, [Francis] has been approached by numerous people encouraging him to run,” an unnamed source told the outlet.
“He will be discussing with his family, friends and supporters to determine if this is the right time for him to run for Congress,” the source continued.
Francis was previously arrested on drunk-driving charges earlier this year as he was rumored to be planning a run for the U.S. Senate.
As the race currently stands, Dunlap appears to be the Democratic frontrunner, while LePage seems to be on track to achieve ultimate victory during the 2026 midterms.
