Former Republican President Donald Trump has a roughly three in four chance of winning the presidency, according to a new analysis of the political landscape from the U.K.-based magazine The Economist.
The new analysis places President Trump’s chances of victory at 72 percent, with his chances rising dramatically in the past week.
The analysis, which The Economist updates daily, placed Trump’s chances at just 63 percent a week ago, but that chance spiked upward over the week.
Currently, Trump’s chances are the highest they have been since the magazine began publishing the analysis in March, when the race appeared far more close, with Trump at a 58 percent chance of victory compared with Demcoratic President Joe Biden’s 42 percent.
Trump’s odds of victory have been fluctuating somewhat since the analysis began, but the past week has for the first time shown a consistent upward trajectory for Trump.
In order to establish the likely outcome of the presidential race, The Economist considered nationwide and state polls along with economic factors.
Analysts then examine the data, and try to establish each candidate’s chances to win electoral votes, which will then determine which candidate The Economist believes will have the best chance of victory.
The outlet currently predicts that Trump will take 306 electoral votes, compared with President Biden’s likely 232, and suggests that Pennsylvania will be a key state in the election, with a 24 percent chance that it will decide the victor.
Currently, The Economist predicts that Trump has a 70 percent chance of victory in Pennsylvania, which cast its electoral votes for Biden in 2020.
Trump’s odds do not, according to the Economist, map on to the national polls.
The Economist’s analysis of national polls has Trump polling at 44.8 percent, and Biden extremely close with 44.2 percent.
Interestingly, Trump’s felony conviction seemingly had very little effect on either his polling numbers, or odds of winning, despite rhetoric from both sides and significant media attention.
[RELATED: Biden Accuses Trump of Planning to Jail Political Opponents While Dems Actively Try to Jail Trump…]
Following the conviction, Trump supporters claimed that he would surge in the polls as the American people would be outraged over the politically motivated trial, while Biden supporters believed that the conviction, and labeling Trump a felon, would hurt his chances.
Trump’s guilty verdict was delivered on May 30, but neither the poll numbers, nor the analysts’ assessment of his chances of winning, shifted significantly in either direction in the following few days.
The recent uptick in Trump’s odds of victory comes as Biden has made a series of embarrassing gaffes internationally and is increasingly displaying signs of poor health related to his advanced age.
<span class="dsq-postid" data-dsqidentifier="28721 https://www.themainewire.com/?p=28721">6 Comments
It will come down to just three states; Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisocnson. It is that simple thanks to our Electoral College.
Does anyone know who Ronny Johnson is?
About the following; “Biden has made a series of embarrassing gaffes internationally and is increasingly displaying signs of poor health related to his advanced age.” Trump challenged Biden to take a cognitive test and immediately and repeatedly called his former White House doctor and Rep. from Texas by the wrong name.
Sigh…
Of course the dems can always steal it again,
If an off shore mag as far left as the Economist calls President Trump a 72% winner, then President Trump’s odd of winning are very close to 100%. This will be a huge gain for our Country.
Here’s my prediction. The DNC will throw cackling Kamala under the bus and replace her with deplorable Hillary. Right after the deep state steals the election (again) Brandon will resign, be charged, convicted, pardoned then its business as usual.