Editor’s Note: The first version of this story misinterpreted the “blank” vote totals as ballots that had been cast blank across the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranking spots — in other words, as ballots that would be tossed out immediately during the first round of Ranked Choice Vote tabulation.
However, it appears that the “blank” votes recorded in the Secretary of State data include only ballots where the 1st option was left blank but a 2nd and/or 3rd option was entered. This means that any of the 12,635 ballots categorized as “blank” in the Secretary of State’s initial data release likely will end up being allocated to one of major party candidates.
According to the Maine Secretary of State, the votes for Maine’s Second Congressional District congressional race between incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Jared Golden and Republican State Rep. Austin Theriault were as follows:
Golden: 196,189 (48.65%)
Theriault: 194,030 (48.11%)
Write-in Diana Merenda: 420 (0.10%)
BLANK: 12,635 (3.13%)
Due to the large number of ballots in which voters did not make a “first choice” selection in the congressional race, the total percentage of the leading candidate (Golden) fell below the 50 percent threshold required for a candidate to win outright under Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system.
However, the 12,635 ballots described in the Secretary of State’s initial data release as “blank” were only blank in the first selection column. Any ballots that were entirely blank — i.e. no select whatsoever was made in the congressional race — were discarded. So the 12,635 ballots include only ballots where 1st choice was left blank, but a selection was made in 2nd choice and/or 3rd choice.
Under Maine’s Ranked Choice Voting rules, a ballot that leaves the 1st choice blank but does make an entry for 2nd choice must be treated as if the 2nd choice is actually the first choice.
Therefore, any ballot that ranked “1) Blank, 2) Theriault 3) Golden” will be interpreted by the RCV system as a first choice ranking for Theriault and therefore a Theriault vote.
In other words, the 12,635 votes that blanked their first pick in the congressional race will be re-distributed as first picks to whomever the voter entered as a 2nd choice, whether that’s Theriault, Golden, or the write-in.
Any of the votes that leave the 1st option blank but fill in a vote for the 2nd option should, under the RCV rules, have the 2nd option treated like their top ranked candidate. However, Maine’s clerks report ballots where this occurs as “blank” rather than adjusting to apply the RCV rules for when this happens.
The implication of this is that it’s almost mathematically certain that Tuesday’s RCV tabulation will, once all of the 2nd options from blanked 1st option ballots are reinterpreted as 1st options, conclude that an RCV tabulation was not necessary because one of the candidates will have more than 50 percent of the vote.
So Tuesday’s (potentially unnecessary) RCV calculation will come down to the second ranked choices of the 12,635 CD2 voters who left the first choice blank, as well as the second choices of those 420 people who voted for the declared write-in.
Currently, Golden leads Theriault by just 2,159 votes, so it’s entirely possible that the redistributed “blank” votes end up changing what initially looked like a solid Golden win.
The final count — and potential victor in the CD2 race — will come down to how the population of people who blanked their 1st choice in the RCV ballot voted for their 2nd choice.
As a counterpoint, here’s a letter Golden’s attorney has submitted to the Secretary of State’s office arguing that the ballots that did not make a First Choice selection should not be used to calculate the percentage of total voters and that, therefore, Golden is already over 50 percent and the RCV process is unnecessary.
This SHOULD trigger a new election. If Ranked Choice is our current policy, an$ requires 50%+, then, we should vote AGAIN, to fix the problem!
I’ve heard that not all ballots had the ranked choice option on them. Is this correct? Has anyone or is any one looking into this?
special election! vote again! 50% is 50% not 49.99
THANK YOU for being the only news source to get the final tallies *and* do the math and analysis. No other outlet has done this. Most still are stuck at “98% of votes in.”
12.6k unmarked? really or just conveniently? Still this close a recount must be performed.
It wasn’t that long ago that a cetin group of people were thought to stuff ballet boxes so safety measures were put in place to curb that kind of fuckery. If you can’t add you must subtract to achieve the desired results, say maybe 12 thousand blank ballets?
Of course Golden will win. The democrats will make sure of it.
12635 ballots left the first choice blank but filled in other choices. Isn’t more likely that the ballots didn’t scan properly?
Ayuh,…. A simple fix,…… Abolish ranked choice ballots, the most votes wins, regardless the percentage,….
Time to abolish this PURPOSEFULLY confusing system .
RCV should be sent to the trash heap
Jared, again you are not the clear winner by the election rules the state of Maine uses to cheat election results. Have No Fear, the Dems will find a way to fudge the vote in your favor.
Conservatives in Maine need to get RCV repealed. It raises the question to voters as to the authenticity of elections. My personal opinion is it opens the door for fraud giving voters the right to make the accusation!
The letter from Golden’s lawyers got one thing wrong in their calculation (other than the final vote totals) or “view” of the RCV rules.
“All write-in candidates must be formally declared as such, by the deadline prior to the election; write-in votes for any undeclared persons will not be counted.” Source: https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/upcoming/rankedchoicefaq.html
So, the write-in votes can only be those attributed to a declared candidate ie 420.
The final %’s numbers according to this theory is G-50.22% T-49.66 W-0.1%
Golden should be declared the winner and Theriault should be able to file for a recount and those blank votes should be looked at.
Where are the lawyers?
DemocRATS-Communists cheating again!!!! According to dipshit Bellows Maine elections are secure and fine. What a crock!!! Maine you ready to get rid of Rank choice voting now?
In my opinion, Shenna Bellows as Secretary of State has not earned the respect and confidence of the Maine people. Far from it. The Ranked-Choice Voting format has been proven to be a confusing and convoluted method of voting. Put the two together and Maine will never know who should really be sitting in Congress.