How Metals Deal Could Shift Ukraine Policy

The United States and Ukraine may be on the verge of deal that could alter America’s national interest in helping the embattled Eastern European country defend itself from Russian aggression, Ukrainian and U.S. sources said on Tuesday. Such a deal would allow the U.S. long-term access to Ukraine’s untapped supply of rare earth metals.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent traveled to Kyiv earlier this month to propose a contract that would grant Washington ownership of half of Ukraine’s rare earth metals, with an estimated value of $500 billion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly balked at the terms of that deal, but on unnamed officials in his government told media on Tuesday that now a prospective deal is close to being signed.

U.S. President Donald Trump said this week that he’d welcome his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington as soon as this Friday to sign an agreement.

“They’re very close to a final deal. It’ll be a deal with rare Earths and various other things. And he would like to come, as I understand it, here to sign it,” Trump added. “And that would be great with me. I think they then have to get it approved by their council or whoever might approve it. But I’m sure that will happen.”

At issue are metals that are key to technology and manufacturing, including titanium — which is used in aircraft and other strategic and advanced applications — and lithium, tantalum and cobalt — all key components in battery and hi-tech manufacturing.

America’s main competitor and adversary, China, has in recent years established global dominance when it comes to these strategic metals. Beijing has targeted key sources countries, many of which are in Africa, with its “Belt-and-Road” strategy of investment and development. By securing access to Ukraine’s deposits, Washington could take a step towards rebalancing that equation.

At the time of his inauguration last month, President Trump re-iterated his commitment to an “America First” set of policy priorities. Last Friday, the White House issued an investment strategy that directed the federal government to pursue an “America First” oriented approach to economic and national security planning.

After invading oil-rich Iraq in 2004, the United States did not materially benefit from long term energy deals there. Today, Russian and Chinese companies are engaged in the Iraqi energy markets to a far greater extent than their American counterparts are. By linking U.S. military assistance to Ukraine today to long-term economic cooperation, the Trump administration could position itself to correcting a past policy the president has long criticized.

Such a commitment would vest the U.S. with an interest in ensuring that Ukraine recovers much of the 20 percent of its territory lost since Russia’s February 2022 invasion began, because portions of the now-Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River are rich with rare earth metals.

Trump has said that the U.S. has already invested about $350 billion in Ukraine’s defense, other sources put that figure at about $200 billion. In order to gain Republican support for the last congressionally-approved tranche of funding in 2024, the Biden administration agreed to call the support a “loan.” This may the basis for Trump’s assertions that these funds should ultimately be repaid.

Over the last week, the Trump administration has appeared to pivot away from some of the rhetoric Washington has used since 2022 to characterize the conflict as senior officials, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, have hedged on questions of who is at fault for the war. Last week, the U.S. voted against a United Nations resolution that would have called Russia responsible for the war. Conceivably, these moves may have impacted Zelensky’s willingness to strike a deal on the metals.

The current conflict between Russia and Ukraine dates back over a decade to the ouster of the Victor Yanukovych government in street protests in Kyiv in 2014 — protests that were sparked by Yanukovych’s decision to backpedal on Ukraine’s accession to a European Union treaty regime in favor of joining a Russian customs union. A metals deal with the United States would dramatically change that calculus. Russia, which is also richly endowed with rare earth metals albeit to a greater extent than Ukraine, has now floated its own willingness to talk about a metals deal with the U.S.

Ever since featuring prominently as a figure in Trump’s first impeachment in 2019, Zelensky has had a complex relationship with the American president — whom he was later quick to praise after last November’s election. If the two leaders are able to come to terms on a deal that includes a strong “America First” component, that relationship stands a good chance of improving. Given the current state of the war, such a development would seem to be very much in Ukraine’s interest as well.