New poll findings released on Thursday give former Maine Governor Paul LePage (R) a three-point lead over incumbent U.S. Representative Jared Golden (D) in a match-off that is still more than a year away.
Fielded between June 19-23, the University of New Hampshire’s Pine Street Poll sampled 394 residents of the 2nd District. 50 percent said they would vote for Gov. LePage were the elected held tomorrow, and 47 percent voiced their intention to support Rep. Golden. Given the sample size, the poll’s margin of error among these respondents is 4.9 percent, meaning it pegs the race at this moment as being a statistical dead heat.
An earlier poll released last month by a group contracted by the National Republican Congressional Committee also showed LePage to have a slight edge in the race.
In terms of favorability, LePage enjoyed a 2:1 advantage over Golden in the survey as 43 percent have a positive opinion of the likely Republican nominee versus 44 who hold an unfavorable view of him while only 21 percent say they have a favorable opinion currently of Golden while 36 percent say they have a negative view with 40 percent expressing neutrality on the question. What that means is that feelings about LePage are more clearly defined than those of Golden, about whom more appear to have a ‘wait and see’ attitude.
The poll also reflected Governor Janet Mills (D) improving her job performance rating statewide by a 55 positive to 44 negative, reversing a trend from earlier in the year. In terms of favorability, Mills enjoyed a 51:41 ratio as opposed to U.S. Senator Susan Collins whom only 14 percent hold a favorable view of versus 57 percent whose current view is unfavorable.
This finding is likely to fuel continued efforts to persuade Mills to challenge Collins in next year’s election, though the current governor has to date said she is not currently planning to do so.
On upcoming referendum questions, the survey also asked respondents statewide how much they had heard and how well they understood choices that will be put before voters this November on a requirement for identification to vote and a “Red Flag” or Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) law on firearm seizures.
Of the two, significantly more had heard about Voter ID – 75:24, while on the “Red Flag” question only 34 percent had heard about it while 64 percent had not. When it comes to understanding, there is a gaping divide between the questions. 86 percent say they have a good handle on the Voter ID question as opposed to 12 percent who say they don’t understand it. In contrast, only 44 percent say they understand the “Red Flag” question as opposed to 55 percent who say they do not.
These finding will likely inform the ensuing voter education campaigns around these questions.
