The Trump White House is predicting what it calls the largest tax refund season in U.S. history, with senior economic officials saying Americans could soon see massive checks and higher take-home pay.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Thursday that the administration expects a historic refund cycle next spring as tax changes take full effect.
“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks,” Hassett said during an appearance on FOX Business’ Varney & Co. He said refunds tied to recent tax changes alone could total several thousand dollars for many households.
President Donald Trump reinforced that message during a Wednesday evening address, predicting “the largest tax refund season of all time” and saying many families could save between $11,000 and $20,000 annually.
The administration’s upbeat outlook comes as many Americans continue to express anxiety about the economy. A recent Fox News poll found 44 percent of respondents said they are falling behind financially, while 74 percent described the economy as “not so good” or “bad.”
Hassett pushed back on that sentiment, pointing to recent labor data showing wage growth outpacing inflation. He said typical workers saw wages rise 3.7 percent while core inflation stood at 1.6 percent, translating to real wage growth of roughly two to 2.5 percent. According to Hassett, blue-collar workers have already gained nearly $2,000 this year after inflation.
Hassett said a similar pattern emerged during Trump’s first term, when major tax legislation passed mid-year and boosted refunds the following tax season.
“We didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer,” he said, noting that earlier tax filings did not reflect those changes.
He also cited what he described as a stronger-than-expected November inflation report, with prices coming in cooler than economists had forecast. Hassett said the administration’s focus on expanding supply has helped ease inflation pressures.
“That’s where we were last time in President Trump’s first term,” he said, pointing to economic growth near three percent with inflation around one percent. “And it looks like that’s where we are again.”
