A veteran University of Virginia political analyst who looks for excuses to favor the Democrats isn’t buying what Graham Platner is selling.
Despite Polymarket calling Platner a 32-point odds-on favorite to beat GOP U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, Larry Sabato is calling the race a toss-up.
The longtime Virginia political analyst shows Maine as key to whether Democrats can flip the Senate to their majority.
Sabato just moved three Senate races to “lean Democrat,” which, if holds, would require them one more seat – i.e., Maine’s – to control the upper chamber.
While Platner is ahead of Collins in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate by 7.4 points, she has a history of massively overperforming polls.
Graham Pollard, The Maine Wire’s digital media editor, recently pointed out that the betting markets are a much more accurate and up-to-date daily barometer of political fortunes than polls, which are old news by the time they are published.
Going into the weekend, Polymarket showed the Democrat advantage in Maine at 32 points.
The market was giving 67 points to Platner and just 35 to the five-term Collins.
Polymarket sells “yes” and “no” shares based on a buyer’s election prediction.
Platner’s winning shares were selling at 67 cents each compared to 35 cents for each of Collins’.
Kalshi, meanwhile, is giving Platner an 20-point advantage, 60-40. It’s predicting a 4.9-point Platner win over Collins.
If electing Platner wasn’t bad enough Democrat Maine voters appear to support Nirav Shah who with the help of Janet Mills weaponized Covid-19 responses from which Maine still hasn’t recovered from.
I think the voters of Maine , who are led around by “ the crowd from down on the bridge “ , and by the states. “ news media “ , just might be stupid enough to vote for those two.
Graham Platner should NEVER be in a position where he is legislating the future of America for our children. Susan Collins has political seniority that is priceless. Mainers cannot put themselves in a position where “they don’t know what they’ve got ’til it’s gone.”
Irish girls should NEVER have a voice in America’s future. The Irish have their own problems to contend with. Namely, the British.
Ya, I said it. The right riots in Northern Ireland are actually British Protestant thugs. They want British troops on border of Republic of Ireland. (?!?)
Susan Commie Collins has a Heritage Action (Heritage Foundation) lifetime score of 24%.
The democrats have senator’s and representatives with a similar conservative score as Commie Sue.
Rep Golden (D) from Maine for example has a conservative score at 21%
Dear “Susan is a Commie”, I have lived in Maine all my life. My ancestors from England arrived in Massachusetts in 1630. My ancestors from Ireland arrived in New Brunswick aboard a “coffin ship” in 1848. You are correct about British politics being a nightmare for the Irish, contributing greatly to the Irish Famine, and I’m surprised you aren’t insisting the descendants of the victims demand reparations from British Parliament. But it’s time to stop the “blame game.” Now I will pass a bit of advice on to you: A wise Air Force Colonel once said, “ASSUME” and it can make an ass out of you and me. As well, Susan Collins might be a RINO; however, she’s the best Republican we can get in the State of Maine. Regards, Irish Girl
I strongly believe common sense, integrity and decency STILL are very important to a majority of people in Maine. That’s what Collins represents. Tirelessly working for 30 years for the people of Maine, she has brought many benefits home to us. Her political seniority is priceless. Compare that to the instability Platner represents. Not only does he wear on his chest a Nazi death symbol which he more or less knew was permanent when he chose to have the tattoo, Platner also must attempt daily to cover up or justify the many poor, reckless choices he has made in his life, It’s like choosing between a slice of homemade Maine blueberry pie and a chunk of upside-down cake. I’ll take the pie any day!!