AUGUSTA, Maine — As Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson faces fresh scrutiny over allegations of past violence and abuse, a newly released statewide poll shows his race against Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins remains virtually deadlocked.
A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Jackson leading Collins 48 percent to 46 percent among registered Maine voters, a two-point advantage that falls within the survey’s margin of error and leaves one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests essentially tied.
The poll was conducted Aug. 6-10 among 1,000 registered Maine voters, just before a series of reports brought renewed attention to Jackson’s past and questions about his temperament.
On Wednesday, the Bangor Daily News reported on a 1988 Fort Kent police report in which Jackson was accused of breaking down a door and punching a man. According to the report, Jackson’s longtime partner also told police at the time that Jackson had “pushed her around.” Jackson has disputed allegations that he abused his partner while acknowledging responsibility for the confrontation with the man.
The scrutiny intensified again when The Maine Wire published an interview with Kim McBreairty, who said he personally witnessed Jackson slap his longtime partner during an incident in northern Maine years ago. McBreairty’s account represents an additional allegation against Jackson and has not been adjudicated in court. Jackson should be afforded the opportunity to respond to the claim.
The new allegation adds another layer to questions already surrounding Jackson as he attempts to introduce himself to voters statewide following his selection as the Democratic nominee last month.
Fox News reported Thursday that Jackson was denying domestic violence allegations as the controversy followed him onto the national stage.
The allegations could inject a volatile new issue into a race that, according to the latest polling, may be decided by a relatively small number of persuadable Maine voters.
The Fox News survey found that Jackson’s support is driven in significant part by opposition to Collins rather than enthusiasm for the Democratic nominee himself. Sixty-one percent of Jackson supporters said their vote was primarily a vote against Collins, while 36 percent said they were principally voting for Jackson.
Collins’ coalition looks markedly different. Seventy-one percent of her supporters said they were voting primarily for Collins, while 27 percent described their choice as principally a vote against Jackson.
That distinction could become increasingly important as the campaign moves into its final months and voters learn more about Jackson.
The poll also suggests Collins has a somewhat more settled base. According to published accounts of the survey, 15 percent of Collins supporters said they might change their minds, compared with 21 percent of Jackson supporters.
The latest controversy follows an already turbulent summer for Maine Democrats.
Jackson was not the Democratic Party’s original nominee.
Graham Platner overwhelmingly won the June Democratic primary but dropped out of the race in July after a woman accused him of sexual assault, an allegation Platner denied. Maine Democrats subsequently selected Jackson at a special convention in Bangor to face Collins in November.
Jackson himself had called on Platner to leave the race after the allegations against him became public.
Now, less than a month after assuming the nomination, Jackson is facing questions about his own past.
The 1988 police report is not the first time Jackson’s temper has emerged as a campaign issue. Previous reporting has highlighted instances in Augusta in which Jackson was accused of angry outbursts, including a State House incident in which he threw a water bottle during a heated dispute.
Despite that scrutiny, polling conducted before the newest allegations became widely publicized shows Jackson remaining highly competitive.
A University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State Poll showed Jackson ahead of Collins 49 percent to 46 percent, also within that survey’s margin of error.
A separate Hart Research poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC found Jackson leading Collins 49 percent to 45 percent. Because the poll was commissioned by a group actively supporting Democratic Senate candidates, its partisan sponsorship is important context when assessing the results.
Taken together, however, the surveys point toward the same conclusion: Maine’s Senate race remains extraordinarily close.
The Fox poll also highlights challenges facing both candidates.
For Collins, President Donald Trump remains a significant factor. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said they were concerned Collins votes with Trump too often. At the same time, 43 percent expressed concern that Jackson is too closely aligned with the democratic socialist movement.
Jackson has been supported by progressive figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders, while Republicans have sought to portray him as well to the left of Maine’s broader electorate.
Collins, meanwhile, is seeking a sixth term and has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to outperform expectations in Maine. She won reelection in 2020 by nearly nine percentage points despite national polling that frequently showed her trailing Democrat Sara Gideon.
Economic anxiety may ultimately prove more decisive than either candidate’s political alliances.
The Fox survey found inflation remains one of voters’ dominant concerns, with Jackson holding a particularly large advantage among Mainers who say they are falling behind financially.
That fits the strategy Jackson has pursued since entering the race. Jackson has focused heavily on affordability and his working-class background as a logger from Allagash, presenting himself as an advocate for Mainers struggling with rising costs.
But the newest allegations threaten to change the conversation.
For Jackson, the question now is whether voters view the decades-old incidents as settled matters from his past or as evidence relevant to his character today.
For Collins, the opportunity is clear: in a race where only a few percentage points separate the candidates, even a modest shift among undecided or loosely committed voters could matter.
And with Jackson’s advantage sitting at just two points in the newest Fox News poll, neither campaign has much room for error.
Perhaps most importantly, the Fox News survey was completed Aug. 10, before the Bangor Daily News published details from the 1988 police report and before The Maine Wire published Pelletier’s allegation that he witnessed Jackson slap his partner.
That means the next round of statewide polling could offer the first meaningful indication of whether the allegations are changing voters’ perceptions of Jackson or whether Maine’s 2026 Senate race remains locked in a statistical dead heat.
