Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio currently sit as frontrunners for the 2028 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire.
These figures come from the latest Granite State Poll, a States of Opinion Project conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
As the first state in the nation to conduct presidential primary elections, how things turn out in New Hampshire can often set the tone going into the rest of the election cycle, indicating up front which candidates have a real chance of taking their party’s nomination.
Although Vice President Vance enjoyed prospective backing from over half of Republicans earlier this year, Secretary Rubio has now nearly quadrupled his support among members of his party in New Hampshire.
When broken down by ideology, it appears that the vast majority of Rubio’s support is currently coming from those who self-identify libertarian.
Libertarian Republicans are, however, more widely supporting Rand Paul as the party’s nominee in 2028.
Conservatives are the most unified in their support for the vice president, while moderates are more divided with a sizable contingent expressing interest in Nikki Haley.
Those interested in voting for Vance mostly cited his qualifications and past experience as the main reason for their support, as well as his values. Republicans backing Rubio also largely pointed toward his qualifications and past experience as the reason why they wanted to see him become the nominee.
Nearly half of Paul’s supporters, however, noted his character as the reason why he was their choice, while roughly the same share of Haley supporters identified her policies.
A strong majority of Republicans indicated that they’d like to see their party’s next nominee build upon President Donald Trump’s legacy, while just 28 percent said they want to see things go in a different direction.
When broken down by party affiliation conservative Republicans are by far the most enthusiastic about continuing the president’s legacy, meanwhile moderates and libertarians are more divided.
A slim plurality of moderates want to build upon President Trump’s legacy, but a slight majority of libertarians want to go in a different direction.
Following along with this, conservatives were the only ideological subgroup of Republican voters that indicated an endorsement from Trump would impact their preferred candidate for the 2028 election.
43 percent of moderates and 52 percent of libertarians said that it would have little to no effect on their choice. 30 percent of moderates, however, said it would make them somewhat or much less likely to support someone if they were endorsed by the president.
Although 2028 is still quite a ways away, early polling can provide some insight into where voters stand based on the current political climate and give a sense of what Americans might expect in the upcoming presidential election cycle.
