Decision Desk HQ: 63.8% Chance Poliquin Tops Golden

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Former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin has a 63.8 percent chance to retake Maine’s 2nd congressional seat from incumbent Democrat Rep. Jared Golden, according to Decision Desk HQ’s forecasting model.

The number is lower than the 86 percent odds of victory the firm gave Poliquin back in July, but higher than the 56 percent odds they forecasted in mid-October, when Golden appeared to be gaining ground.

The Decision Desk forecasting model takes in to account more than 100 variables, including polling, the districts historical voting patterns, fundraising and more.

Other models that rely more on opinion pollsters, like Nate Silver’s 538 model, predict the race going exactly the opposite direction, with Golden winning 63 out of 100 simulated elections.

Silver’s model also has incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, winning 88 out of 100 simulated contests against former Republican Gov. Paul LePage. (Decision Desk doesn’t have public forecasting for Maine’s gubernatorial election available.)

On the national races, Decision Desk sees a 56 percent chance that Republicans take control of the U.S. Senate. The firm sees toss-up election in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, but views only the Nevada race as leaning Democratic. The forecast gives Republicans a 78.6 percent chance of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives.

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