A new poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, conducted after President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance at the year’s first presidential debate, found that former Republican President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over his Democratic opponent in New Hampshire.
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The survey found that, if the election were held today, New Hampshire would likely give its four electoral votes to President Trump, with 44 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him, compared with 42 percent who would support Biden.
The post debate poll results mark a significant increase in Trump’s chances when compared to St. Anselm polls conducted in Dec. 2023, when Trump received 39 percent support compared with 49 percent for Biden.
Although New Hampshire is widely considered a swing state and has a Republican governor, it is represented in Congress exclusively by Democrats and has cast its electoral votes for the Democratic presidential candidate in every presidential election since 2004.
Trump’s current lead is far from solid and could easily change by November.
At the time of the survey, nine percent of respondents were unsure of which candidate they would support, a number large enough to potentially change the advantage by November.
A significant number of voters, 24 percent, said that their vote could change by Election Day, suggesting that Trump’s lead could disappear or that Biden’s continuing mental decline could shift New Hampshire voters closer to Trump.
While Trump had a slight edge over Biden, the Democrat congressional candidates were nevertheless favored, with 46 percent support compared with 43 percent favoring Republicans.
Numerous respondents, 17 percent, told St. Anselm’s College that they have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, but those people were more likely to support Biden than Trump.
On the other hand, the survey found that Trump has more support among swing voters, moderates, and undeclared voters, and also found that more registered Democrats have defected in favor of independent candidates than Republican voters.
Despite the “Never Trumpers,” i.e. Republican voters who refuse to support Trump, he received support from 89 percent of Republicans, while Biden received only 82 percent support from his party.
