A new New Hampshire Journal poll of Republican voters in New Hampshire suggests Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the early frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race, reinforcing a broader national trend and challenging long-held assumptions about the Granite State’s political identity.
According to a survey conducted by Praecones Analytica and reported by the New Hampshire Journal, Vance leads the prospective GOP primary field by a wide margin, with competitors such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Donald Trump Jr. trailing behind.
The poll, which surveyed 350 registered Republican voters between April 22 and May 13, found that New Hampshire Republicans — long viewed as more moderate and independent-minded than the national party — now closely mirror the broader GOP electorate.
“In line with the national GOP electorate, New Hampshire Republicans put Vance at the top of their preference list,” said pollster Dr. Jonathan Klingler to the New Hampshire Journal.
Rubio placed third in the poll, behind Trump Jr., while former Vice President Mike Pence posted just 3.5 percent support. Media personality Tucker Carlson registered less than 1 percent, signaling limited traction among GOP primary voters despite his national profile.
The results mark a significant shift in how political strategists may view New Hampshire’s role in presidential primaries. For decades, the state’s semi-open primary system and large bloc of independent voters contributed to its reputation as a testing ground for more moderate Republican candidates. Figures like the late Sen. John McCain leveraged that dynamic to secure primary victories in 2000 and 2008.
But recent results suggest that dynamic may be fading.
“This is J.D. Vance’s nomination to lose,” veteran New Hampshire GOP strategist Jim Merrill told the NH Journal. Merrill previously managed Rubio’s 2016 campaign in the state.
Merrill noted that Vance is widely viewed as aligned with former President Donald Trump, whose popularity among Republican voters remains strong. The poll found Trump still holds a 73 percent approval rating among New Hampshire Republicans, nearly unchanged from earlier this year.
The poll also measured candidate favorability, with Vance posting the strongest net-positive rating at 78 percent approval. Rubio and Trump Jr. followed closely behind, each with 71 percent approval ratings.
Carlson’s low support may reflect his recent public disagreements with Trump, according to analysts, underscoring the continued influence of the former president within the GOP.
Beyond the presidential race, the survey also highlighted developments in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate contest. Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown trails former Gov. John E. Sununu by more than 40 points in the GOP primary, with analysts suggesting Sununu’s advantage is bolstered by support from voters aligned with Vance.
