The nation’s oldest self-appointed weather bible is out with its annual winter prediction – believe it or not.
The New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac is guessing higher temperatures and lower snowfall for northern New England.
Makes great conversation but how reliable is it?
The competing Farmers’ Almanac out of Lewiston, Maine seems to be playing it safe, giving new meaning to the word noncommittal.
“The northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns,” writes “Caleb Weatherbee” from the Maine-based almanac.
Climatologists have said “almanacs” predicting weather so far ahead have roughly a 1 in 2 chance of getting it right.
So if that means the predictions are 50 percent correct, they’re wrong half the time.
The New Hampshire almanac, around since 1792, has described its mission as being “useful, with a pleasant degree of humor.”
The publication has claimed a long-range prediction accuracy of 80 percent, roughly the same as Weatherbee’s, despite the skeptics.
The Granite State almanac’s winter map shows Maine as “mild and dry” and southern New Hampshire and Vermont as “cold and snowy.”
The publication’s long-range predictions “blend solar science, climatology, and meteorology with historical weather patterns and large-scale climate signals, including a strong El Niño that returned this summer,” according to SnowBrains.com.
Weatherbee’s preparation, meanwhile, is based on the “same core, proprietary weather formula the Farmers’ Almanac has relied upon since its founding in 1818.”
That allegedly includes “recurring natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences, and historical weather patterns” as well as, nowadays, satellites, computers and atmospheric data.
“Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow – particularly during January and February,” Weatherbee says.
“Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow,” he adds. “Residents should be prepared for forecasts to change quickly as storms approach.”
Now seriously, folks, does that sound like a forecast or a throw-a-dart-at-the-wall guess?
SnowBrains, by the way, is giving the New Hampshire almanac a solid “F” for its New England predictions from last winter.
“The temperature and snow call missed the season by a wide margin,” the outlet says.
The New Hampshire almanac had said the northeast would lean warm and below normal on both precipitation and snowfall.
Meteorologists generally pay little attention to annual forecasts produced by almanacs, whether they are in New Hampshire or Maine, according to USA Today’s Mike Snider.
“I don’t know what voodoo magic they use to get their forecasts,” meteorologist Don Day at Wyoming’s Cowboy State Daily newspaper said, as quoted in Snider’s piece Friday.
“I don’t think we should be talking about any detailed winter forecast till maybe mid to late September,” Day added. “Until then, it’s not helpful for anybody.”
