With all eyes on Washington as President Donald Trump seeks to secure a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, it’s clear that Trump was right about the conflict all along.
When I served as a national security advisor to the president during his first term, nearly a decade ago, he often stated that he didn’t want World War III over Ukraine, and that the Europeans should do more to help.
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Though America has some leverage over both Russia and Ukraine, convincing them to end the war after millions have been killed and wounded would be among the highest achievements of any U.S. president, truly worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.
President Trump has long recognized that Russia’s defense budget was much higher than Ukraine’s and they would fight to the last man over disputed border areas. He knew it wasn’t simply going to give up territories in Crimea and two eastern provinces in the Donbas seized in 2014. After all, Russia’s aggression came after a Western-backed coup in Kyiv toppled an elected government that had buckled to Moscow on trade while rebuffing the European Union.
There was a vicious smear campaign and lawfare waged against Trump and his first national security team by Democrats and their Never Trump Republican allies alleging we were beholden to Russia through the Russiagate Hoax, a years-long, high tech coup attempt. Despite all those accusations, the president was tougher on Moscow than President Barack Obama had been. (RELATED: SEN. ERIC SCHMITT: Prosecutions Are The Next Chapter Of Russiagate)
Within one year of his first inauguration, President Trump sent Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine to better contain Russian battlefield advances. President Obama had sent humanitarian supplies instead. Trump also sanctioned Russia multiple times, including for its military actions in Syria and Ukraine, as well as its election interference. In 2018, U.S. forces killed hundreds of Russians on the battlefield in Syria.
Though President Trump’s original national security team came largely from the relatively hawkish establishment since we had previously held other national security posts, we quickly came around to his way of thinking on foreign policy and tried to implement his vision. After all, signing up to Make America Great Again was not consistent with risking nuclear war over the Russia-Ukraine border when we could scarcely protect our own borders.
While our sentiment was generally supportive of Ukraine — as it remains today in the White House — the issue still remains a matter of what to do about it. Sending tens of billions of dollars-worth of weapons at taxpayer expense will only kill and maim countless more for the same end result: Russia outslugs Ukraine over time as U.S. resources are drained.
To be sure, Ukraine will not easily let go of the Donbas after the considerable blood and resources spent to protect it. A treasure trove of rare earth minerals and coal in the region underscores that point. A frozen conflict seems inevitable.
Crimea is different. The militarily strategic peninsula had been under Russian control since the late 1700s before Soviet Premier Nikita Khruschev signed it over to Ukraine in 1954, as partial compensation for the 1930s Holodomor — a man-made famine killing millions of Ukrainians caused by Joseph Stalin, a Georgian. But since both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union at the time, it was largely symbolic. Not anymore.
It’s been fought over throughout history with many Russians killed. The Crimean War resulted in an estimated 650,000 casualties from 1853-1856 as the Russians tried to fight off a British-French invasion in support of their ally, the Ottoman Empire. Moscow was eventually humbled into a peace deal after Austria, another top European power, threatened to join the allies.
While Russian-Ukrainian history is complex and, at times, brutal, it’s still relatively simple in terms of pure firepower and manpower. The odds greatly favor Russia. (RELATED: Putin Claims Ukraine War Wouldn’t Have Started If Trump Were President Instead Of Biden)
The president knows this and yet is still staying tough on Moscow. He’s a realist who wisely doesn’t want to drag America into a direct shooting war with a major nuclear power, yet also is committed to stop the endless dying. It’s a tough balancing act considering the committed leadership in Kyiv and Moscow, but one Trump has deeply understood for a long time.
J.D. Gordon is a former national security advisor to Donald J. Trump. Previously he served as a Pentagon spokesman under George W. Bush. He is a retired Navy Commander.
