Global Markets Surge as Trump Signals Iran Peace Deal May Be Near

WASHINGTON – Hopes for a major diplomatic breakthrough in the three-month conflict between the United States and Iran sent global stock markets soaring Friday while crude oil prices dropped sharply to their lowest levels in nearly two months.

The sudden market shift followed comments from President Donald Trump, who said planned U.S. military strikes were called off after negotiators reached what he described as a preliminary framework agreement approved by “all parties.” Trump has since suggested a formal agreement could potentially be signed within days.

Negotiations have intensified around a proposed 60-day Memorandum of Understanding aimed at extending a fragile ceasefire between the two nations. Reports indicate the agreement is being brokered with assistance from Qatar and Pakistan, while discussions continue over sanctions relief, reopening vital shipping lanes, and Iran’s nuclear program.

Among the key provisions under discussion is the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping, along with Iran beginning the removal of naval mines from the region. The proposed agreement would also include sanctions waivers from the United States, allowing Tehran to resume unrestricted oil exports.

The framework further requires Iran to abandon efforts to develop nuclear weapons and comply with United Nations inspections. Trump has repeatedly stated that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains the central condition of any final settlement.

Despite the growing optimism, Iranian officials have signaled caution. Iran’s foreign ministry stated that the final text of the agreement remains under review and has not yet been officially signed, while reports indicate final approval from Iran’s leadership is still pending.

The proposed agreement follows months of escalating military tension surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping corridors. The conflict severely disrupted global energy markets after Iran restricted access to the waterway and the United States responded with naval operations and a blockade aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic.

Energy markets reacted immediately to the prospect of de-escalation, trimming much of the geopolitical risk premium that had driven oil prices sharply higher during the conflict.

Brent crude fell roughly 3 percent to around $89 per barrel after previously climbing above $100 during the height of the war. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped nearly 2.6 percent to approximately $86.50 per barrel as fears of an immediate supply disruption eased.

Analysts warned, however, that oil prices could quickly surge again if negotiations collapse. With strong summer demand approaching and global inventory levels remaining relatively low, some market observers believe crude could climb back into the $120 to $130 range by late July if hostilities resume.

Stock markets across the globe rallied strongly on news of the possible agreement, as investors responded to easing concerns over war-driven inflation and broader economic instability.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 climbed 1.3 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 802 points, or 1.6 percent, during a broad-based rally.

International markets also posted major gains. South Korea’s Kospi index led global markets after soaring nearly 8 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei index advanced more than 3 percent.

Technology companies, artificial intelligence firms, and chipmakers helped drive the rebound, while energy stocks lagged behind the broader market due to falling oil prices.