Maine is a small state about to experience an enormous political war.
Political advertising surrounding the state’s 2026 U.S. Senate race could approach $400 million, according to projections from Ad Impact, roughly twice the staggering amount spent during Maine’s record-setting 2020 Senate contest.
And beginning this Labor Day weekend, that money will collide with a race that remains essentially deadlocked.
A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 found Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leading Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters, a two-point difference that falls within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The numbers explain why Washington is paying such close attention to Maine.
Republicans currently control the U.S. Senate, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber outright. Collins’ seat has become one of the Republican-held seats national Democrats see as a potential pathway to power.
Maine, in other words, is no longer simply holding a Senate election.
It could help determine who controls Washington.
Nearly $400 Million for One Senate Race
The scale of the spending is difficult to comprehend.
AdImpact projected in June that nearly $500 million in political advertising could be spent across Maine during the 2026 election cycle, with almost $400 million associated with the Senate contest.
That would roughly double the estimated $200 million spent during Collins’ 2020 race against Democrat Sara Gideon, which shattered Maine political spending records at the time.
The numbers have only become more striking as the general election has developed.
As of Aug. 19, Republican-aligned organizations had already spent approximately $30 million more on broadcast and digital advertising than their Democratic counterparts and held roughly a 2-to-1 advantage in fall broadcast reservations, according to FEC and AdImpact data reported by Maine Public.
Outside organizations are expected to spend tens of millions more before Election Day.
For Maine voters, that means the race will become nearly impossible to escape.
Television.
Streaming services.
Social media.
Digital advertising.
Direct mail.
Text messages.
One of America’s smallest states is about to become one of its most valuable pieces of political real estate.
Collins Enters the Fall With a Financial Fortress
Collins enters the final stretch with something Jackson did not have when he suddenly became the Democratic nominee in July: time, money and decades of statewide name recognition.
Federal Election Commission records show Collins’ principal campaign committee raised approximately $16.17 million between Jan. 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026 and entered July with $11.04 million cash on hand.
That does not include the millions being spent independently by Republican organizations supporting Collins or attacking Jackson.
Collins is seeking a sixth term after nearly three decades in the United States Senate.
Jackson became the Democratic nominee only July 25 after Maine Democrats selected him at a replacement convention following Graham Platner’s withdrawal.
That left Jackson barely more than three months to build a statewide campaign, raise money and introduce himself to voters who may have known little about a former Maine Senate president whose political base had long been centered in northern Maine.
Jackson’s campaign says it raised approximately $7 million after he became the nominee.
That is a substantial fundraising burst.
But Collins already had more than $11 million sitting in the bank at the end of June.
And Republican outside groups were already spending heavily before Jackson had finished assembling his campaign.
That compressed timeline may be one of the defining strategic facts of the entire race.
Republicans did not have to wait for Jackson to define himself.
They began doing it for him.
Jackson Still Must Answer Questions About His Past
That effort has not focused solely on Jackson’s voting record.
Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Jackson has faced renewed scrutiny involving a decades-old assault, allegations involving his longtime partner, reports about his temperament in Augusta and questions surrounding taxpayer-funded travel reimbursements while serving in legislative leadership.
A 1988 Fort Kent police report obtained by the Bangor Daily News documented an incident in which Jackson, then 19, broke down a door and assaulted another man.
Jackson does not dispute the assault.
He has said he took responsibility for the fight then and continues to take responsibility for it now.
But the report also contains an allegation involving Lana Pelletier, Jackson’s longtime partner and second cousin.
According to the police report, Pelletier told an officer Jackson had “pushed her around” following the confrontation and said she intended to seek cease-harassment papers.
No record has surfaced showing that she ultimately did so.
Both Jackson and Pelletier have denied the allegation.
Pelletier said she does not remember making the statements attributed to her in the nearly four-decade-old police report and said they were inaccurate.
Jackson has said unequivocally that he has never been violent with Pelletier or any other woman.
Then came another allegation.
Kim McBreairty, an Allagash-area man who has known Jackson for decades and is also Jackson’s cousin, sat down for a video interview with The Maine Wire in northern Aroostook County.
McBreairty said he personally witnessed Jackson strike Pelletier outside a small establishment in neighboring St. Francis years ago.
According to McBreairty, he approached the building and saw Jackson and Pelletier standing outside.
“He just open-hand slapped her beside the head,” McBreairty told The Maine Wire.
McBreairty said the alleged blow caused Pelletier’s head to move and her hair to fly.
Asked whether he saw Jackson use a fist or an open hand, McBreairty said it was an open-handed strike.
The allegation is serious.
It is also just that , an allegation.
The Maine Wire has not independently corroborated McBreairty’s account, and the alleged incident has not resulted in any known criminal finding against Jackson.
Jackson has broadly denied ever abusing Pelletier.
The competing accounts leave voters with an unusual mix of documented history and disputed allegations.
The 1988 assault against another man is undisputed.
The statement attributed to Pelletier in the police report is disputed.
McBreairty’s separate account is an eyewitness allegation that has not been independently corroborated.
Those distinctions matter.
But so does the fact that the issues are likely to follow Jackson onto debate stages and into Republican advertising during the final weeks of the campaign.
Questions About Jackson’s Temper
Jackson has also faced scrutiny over his temperament during his years in Augusta.
The most widely discussed episode occurred in 2021, when Jackson threw a plastic water bottle during a heated argument involving then-Sen. Heather Sanborn.
Jackson’s campaign has acknowledged that he threw the bottle but said it was thrown away from Sanborn and other lawmakers.
PolitiFact later found no evidence that the bottle struck Sanborn and rated false a Republican advertisement suggesting that Jackson had hit a female colleague.
The underlying confrontation, however, was not disputed.
Other former colleagues have described heated arguments, shouting and desk-pounding during Jackson’s years in legislative leadership.
Jackson’s defenders have portrayed those incidents as the actions of an intense advocate whose emotions sometimes boiled over during contentious legislative battles.
Republicans see something different.
For them, Jackson’s temperament is becoming part of the argument that Maine voters should examine not just what he says on the campaign trail, but how he conducted himself when he held power in Augusta.
The Mileage Questions Have Not Gone Away
There is another issue Jackson has never fully put to rest: taxpayer-funded travel while serving in the Maine Legislature.
Public records previously reviewed by The Maine Wire show Jackson received more than $160,000 in combined travel, lodging and legislative allowances between 2019 and 2023.
That figure was not all mileage.
But individual years included significant auto mileage, lodging and “mileage in lieu of housing” payments.
In 2020, records showed Jackson received approximately $9,837 in auto mileage, more than $4,000 for hotels and another $3,061 for mileage in lieu of housing.
In 2021, he received approximately $6,040 in auto mileage, $6,918 in mileage in lieu of housing and nearly $1,906 for lodging.
In 2022, his reimbursements included approximately $9,621 in auto mileage, $5,231 in mileage in lieu of housing and more than $4,289 for hotel expenses.
Those payments became controversial because Jackson and Pelletier purchased a home in Augusta in September 2019 approximately 2.1 miles from the State House.
Mortgage documents for the FHA-backed loan identified the Augusta property as their principal residence.
Jackson continued to maintain that Allagash, nearly 300 miles away, remained his legal residence.
Jackson has said the Augusta house was a temporary residence necessary for his legislative duties and that Allagash remained his permanent home.
He pointed to his driver’s license, voter registration, homestead exemption and longstanding family ties to Allagash.
The Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices unanimously declined in 2023 to open a formal investigation into the residency complaint.
That decision did not establish that Jackson improperly collected travel reimbursements.
But it also did not conduct an audit establishing how often Jackson actually traveled between Augusta and Allagash for the individual trips underlying the taxpayer-funded payments.
That distinction is important.
Jackson has provided a general explanation for why he maintained an Augusta residence while representing Allagash.
What he has not publicly provided is a trip-by-trip accounting showing the travel underlying the substantial reimbursements.
For a candidate running as a champion of working people and government accountability, Republicans are almost certain to keep pressing that question.
Four Debates Could Force Answers
Those questions may soon move from campaign advertising to the debate stage.
Collins and Jackson have now agreed to participate in four televised debates before Election Day.
The first is scheduled for the week of Sept. 6 and will be jointly hosted by NewsCenter Maine, Maine Public and the Portland Press Herald.
Additional debates will be hosted by WGME and WMTW, with another jointly hosted by WABI and WAGM.
Collins’ campaign has pushed for debates to begin quickly.
“Senator Collins believes that Maine people deserve the chance to see both candidates answer the same questions, in the same room, more than once, and as soon as possible,” campaign spokesman Shawn Roderick said.
Jackson’s campaign has said it wants the debates conducted as town halls, with Maine voters asking the questions.
The timing matters.
Early voting begins Oct. 5.
That leaves only about a month for both candidates to reshape the race before Mainers start casting ballots.
And it means Jackson may soon have to answer, before a statewide television audience, questions about more than health care, tariffs and Trump.
His past is now part of the campaign.
Two Campaigns Trying to Define the Election
The broader contest is increasingly becoming a battle over what voters should be thinking about when they enter the booth.
Jackson wants the race to become a referendum on Collins and President Donald Trump.
Collins and her allies want it to become a referendum on Jackson’s record and character.
The Fox News poll shows why.
Fifty-five percent of respondents said they were very or extremely concerned that Collins votes with Trump too frequently.
Forty-three percent expressed the same level of concern that Jackson was too closely aligned with the democratic socialist movement.
Jackson and Democratic groups are therefore emphasizing Collins’ relationship with Trump, abortion, health care and national Republican policies.
Republicans are emphasizing Jackson’s years in Augusta, his political allies, spending decisions, temperament and unresolved controversies.
Both strategies involve risk.
Collins cannot afford to alienate Republican voters energized by Trump, but she has traditionally relied on independents and moderate Democrats to build winning statewide coalitions.
Jackson must motivate Democrats while convincing rural and unenrolled voters that his progressive legislative record does not place him outside Maine’s political mainstream.
Collins Must Navigate Trump
Collins has spent much of her career cultivating a reputation for independence.
That reputation may be tested more aggressively than ever during the next two months.
Jackson will argue that Collins has enabled Trump’s agenda.
Collins will point to areas where she has publicly opposed the administration, including portions of Trump’s tariff policies toward Canada.
Vice President JD Vance underscored the unusual political relationship during his recent Maine visit when he praised Collins as a highly independent senator.
Collins did not attend the event.
The political challenge is straightforward.
Collins needs Trump voters.
She also needs voters who do not like Trump.
That balancing act has helped define her political career.
This year it could determine whether that career continues.
Jackson Faces a Different Challenge
Jackson’s problem is more fundamental.
Many Maine voters are still getting to know him.
Although he served for years in state government and rose to become Senate president, his political identity has historically been closely tied to Allagash, organized labor and northern Maine.
Running statewide against Collins requires something different.
Jackson must build enormous margins in Democratic strongholds such as Cumberland County while remaining competitive across rural Maine.
He must persuade Democrats who backed other candidates before the party’s chaotic replacement process.
And he must do all of that while responding to tens of millions of dollars in opposition advertising.
That is why the controversies surrounding his past matter politically.
Every day Jackson spends answering questions about an assault, allegations involving Pelletier, his temper or his legislative reimbursements is a day he is not solely talking about Collins, Trump or affordability.
Republicans understand that.
Democrats understand it too.
Six Write-Ins Add Another Variable
The race also has an unusual ballot complication.
Six Mainers met the Aug. 25 deadline to become declared write-in candidates for U.S. Senate: Brent Andrews of York, Sigrid Ann Olson of Cape Elizabeth, Gina Oswald of Strong, Joseph Steinberger of Rockland, Michael Turcotte of Burnham and Ashley J. Webb of Farmington.
Only Collins and Jackson will have their names printed on the ballot.
But the declared write-ins mean ranked-choice voting will be available in the federal race.
If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, lower-performing candidates would be eliminated and ballots redistributed according to voters’ subsequent choices until one candidate reaches a majority.
In a race currently polling in the upper 40s for both major candidates, even a modest write-in vote could be enough to force a ranked-choice tabulation.
That does not mean any write-in candidate is likely to win.
It means Maine may not necessarily know the winner on election night.
The National Map Runs Through Maine
That possibility will only increase national attention.
Maine offers strategists on both sides an irresistible combination.
A five-term Republican incumbent.
A Democratic challenger polling within striking distance.
A state known for ticket splitting.
An enormous pool of unenrolled voters.
And a Senate majority that could turn on only a handful of contests.
That combination explains the money.
It explains the national advertisements.
It explains the political visitors.
And it explains why Maine voters should expect the final weeks of this campaign to become increasingly aggressive.
Maine Voters Will Decide What Matters
Labor Day traditionally marks the unofficial end of summer.
For Collins and Jackson, it marks something much more consequential.
The beginning of the campaign that will actually decide the race.
Four debates are ahead.
Early voting begins Oct. 5.
Hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising could ultimately surround the contest.
Democrats will ask voters to judge Collins on Trump, abortion and the direction of Washington.
Republicans will ask voters to judge Jackson on Augusta, his temperament, his political record and questions from his past that have followed him into the race.
Jackson will have opportunities to answer those questions.
Collins will have to answer difficult questions of her own.
And the voters, not the super PACs, consultants or national party committees, will ultimately decide which issues matter.
A state with fewer than 1.4 million residents could determine which party controls the United States Senate.
That makes Maine one of the most valuable political battlegrounds in America.
Summer is ending.
The real fight for Maine has just begun.
I can not imagine that the majority of voters will vote for Troy Jackson .I can’t imagine it .
BUT ……..I do expect however .l…that a bunch of “ protest “ votes for all the other write in “ spoiler “ candidates , will prevent Collins from going past the initial 50% threshold….. that will then trigger the Ranked Choice Scheme ….and then it will all wind up being manipulated by Sheena Bellows and her crew of operatives .
I pray that Maine Voters will be smart enough to choose wisely in November .